Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 9 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+


	Olimpia Asuncion		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.88	2.8	Watch
	2.65	2.95	2.8
	2.85	2.88	2.75	Watch
	2.92	2.88	2.78
	2.62	2.88	2.8
	2.88	3.01	2.77	Watch
	2.85	2.88	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↑ (2.18)	2.91 ↓ (3.25)	2.78 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olimpia Asuncion
33.6%

Draw
32.4%

Vélez Sársfield
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

29%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

30%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olimpia Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Olimpia Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vélez Sársfield's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Olimpia Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vélez Sársfield, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	50%	30%

Olimpia Asuncion - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Olimpia will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Vélez will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Vélez (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Vélez (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Vélez (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Vélez (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Arzamendia M. (G) 22. Rojas R. 2. Lopez L. 5. Barreto Viera O. J. 36. Zabala F. 18. Dominguez J. 6. Ortiz R. (C) 11. Redes R. 8. Franco Zayas A. F. 29. Leguizamon I. 9. Benedetto D.	1. Marchiori T. (G) 14. Lagos A. 2. Mammana E. 31. Gomez V. 3. Gomez E. 32. Ordonez C. 5. Baeza C. 26. Bouzat A. (C) 28. Carrizo M. 9. Braian Romero 10. Montoro A.
Substitutes
3. Benitez H. 30. Benitez Sanchez H. 23. Espinola A. 7. Fernandez H. 17. Gomez M. 10. Gonzalez D. 32. Lopez E. 26. Maciel A. R. 33. Morinigo A. 16. Paredes A. 19. Pratto L. 13. Verza Martinez L. A. (G)	43. Andrada I. 34. Fernandez D. 8. Galvan T. 39. Machuca I. 20. Pizzini F. 46. Porcel M. 6. Quiros A. 12. Rodriguez R. (G) 19. Roldan L. 7. Santos M. 40. Silvero T. 33. Vazquez K. A.
Coaches
Palermo M.	Barros Schelotto G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Braian Romero ⚽, Gomez E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Lagos A. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Braian Romero (Pen),
53', Baeza C. 🟨,
55', Dominguez J. 🟨,
55', Franco Zayas A. F. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
56', 0 - 3, Carrizo M. ⚽, Montoro A. (A),
65', Baeza C. ↓, Vazquez K. A. ↑,
65', Montoro A. ↓, Pizzini F. ↑,
71', Fernandez D. 🟨,
75', Benedetto D. ↓, Benitez Sanchez H. ↑,
75', Carrizo M. ↓, Santos M. ↑,
79', Ortiz R. 🟨,
81', Gonzalez D. 🟨,
89', Ortiz R. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
90', Mammana E. ↓, Silvero T. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 4, Pizzini F. ⚽, Gomez E. (A),

Preview

Olimpia has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Vélez is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Vélez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Olimpia have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Vélez: Cavanagh T. (Muscle Injury) Fernandez M. (Inactive) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Gordon J. (Inactive) Monzon F. (Injury) Pellegrini M. (Muscle Injury) Pernicone P. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olimpia Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
06.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Olimpia Asuncion	3:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
29.03.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1 ✺
22.03.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL
- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.04.25	Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - Deportivo Riestra	0:1 ✺
17.03.25	Atlético Tucumán - Vélez Sársfield	1:2 ✺
07.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - San Martín de San Juan	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWLWW

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