Match Info

EFL Trophy

Date: 7 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Bescot Stadium (Walsall)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Walsall		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	2.72	3.05	2.52
	2.87	3.14	2.52
	2.45	3.11	2.99	Watch
	2.61	3.25	2.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.16)	3.13 ↓ (3.41)	2.62 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Walsall
34.8%

Draw
29.7%

Northampton Town
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

27.1%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

25.4%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Walsall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Walsall's form might have worsened.

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Northampton Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Walsall than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Walsall, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Northampton Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Walsall - Northampton Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Walsall (votes: 1 - 25%). Northampton (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Walsall will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Hornby S. (G) 33. Browne R. 6. Farquharson P. 30. Weir E. 17. Clarke C. 22. Jellis J. 14. Comley B. 31. Richards R. 25. Okeke J. 37. Adomah A. 9. Matt J. (C)	34. Fitzsimons R. (G) 3. McCarthy C. 6. Willis J. (C) 15. Thorniley J. 16. Wormleighton J. 8. McGeehan C. 4. Campbell D. 21. Perkins J. 17. Jacobs M. 27. Vale J. 11. Swyer K.
Substitutes
29. Finnigan R. 32. Hollman J. 98. Kilroy J. (G) 99. Maher R. 55. Makavore P. 56. McLloyd O. 59. Straw S.	20. Avery T. (G) 37. Barnett J. 14. Fornah T. 12. Guinness-Walker N. 7. Hoskins S. 10. List E. 23. Taylor T.
Coaches
Sadler M. J.	Nolan K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Jellis J. ↓, Finnigan R. ↑,
46', McGeehan C. ↓, Fornah T. ↑,
46', Thorniley J. ↓, Guinness-Walker N. ↑,
46', Vale J. ↓, List E. ↑,
46', Campbell D. ↓, Taylor T. ↑,
46', Farquharson P. ↓, Straw S. ↑,
46', Comley B. ↓, Hollman J. ↑,
52', List E. ↓, Hoskins S. ↑,
53', McCarthy C. 🟨,
66', Matt J. ↓, McLloyd O. ↑,
66', Weir E. ↓, Maher R. ↑,
78', Hornby S. 🟨,
82', Maher R. 🟨,
88', 0 - 1, Swyer K. ⚽, Taylor T. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Walsall won 2.

Walsall has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Northampton is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Northampton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Walsall will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Walsall won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Walsall won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.4:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Walsall - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 42.71%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Walsall FC
English League Two
04.10.25	Walsall - Bristol Rovers	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Accrington Stanley - Walsall	1:3 ✺
20.09.25	Walsall - Tranmere Rovers	4:2 ✺
13.09.25	Fleetwood Town - Walsall	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Walsall - Chesterfield	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWTW
- Northampton Town
English League One
04.10.25	Port Vale - Northampton Town	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
23.09.25	Northampton Town - Chelsea U21	3:0 ✺
English League One
20.09.25	Wycombe Wanderers - Northampton Town	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Northampton Town - Blackpool	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
04.02.23	Northampton Town - Walsall	0:0
04.10.22	Walsall - Northampton Town	1:0
01.03.22	Northampton Town - Walsall	1:1
05.02.22	Walsall - Northampton Town	0:1
English EFL Trophy
05.10.21	Northampton Town - Walsall	1:2 penalties
English League Two
15.02.20	Walsall - Northampton Town	3:2
03.08.19	Northampton Town - Walsall	0:1

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