Match Info

League One - Round 10

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: Oldham S. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		Bolton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.7	1.68
	4.45	3.55	1.75
	4.62	3.76	1.83
	4.68	3.68	1.71	Watch
	4.73	3.64	1.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.6 ↑ (3.91)	3.67 ↑ (3.46)	1.75 ↓ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
20.5%

Draw
25.7%

Bolton Wanderers
53.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

27.2%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

27.4%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bolton Wanderers's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bolton Wanderers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	22.2%	55.6%

Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Northampton will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Bolton will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolton: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Northampton (votes: 2 - 50%). Bolton (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Fitzsimons R. (G) 3. McCarthy C. 18. Forbes M. 15. Thorniley J. 7. Hoskins S. (C) 4. Campbell D. 23. Taylor T. 16. Wormleighton J. 8. McGeehan C. 19. Wheatley E. 14. Fornah T.	1. Sharman-Lowe T. (G) 2. Dacres-Cogley J. 3. Forino-Joseph C. 6. Johnston G. (C) 25. Conway M. 8. Sheehan J. 4. Simons X. 19. Cozier-Duberry A. 24. Forss M. 11. Gale T. 48. Burstow M.
Substitutes
20. Avery T. (G) 36. Evans O. 12. Guinness-Walker N. 17. Jacobs M. 11. Swyer K. 27. Vale J. 6. Willis J.	20. Cissoko I. 10. Dalby S. 21. Erhahon E. 45. McAtee J. 27. Miller T. (G) 16. Morley A. 18. Toal E.
Coaches
Nolan K.	Schumacher S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Wheatley E. ↓, Vale J. ↑,
45+1', Hoskins S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
61', Dacres-Cogley J. ↓, Morley A. ↑,
70', 1 - 0, McGeehan C. ⚽,
73', Hoskins S. (Pen),
73', 2 - 0, Hoskins S. ⚽,
74', Forss M. ↓, McAtee J. ↑,
74', Sheehan J. ↓, Erhahon E. ↑,
75', Gale T. ↓, Cissoko I. ↑,
76', Fornah T. ↓, Swyer K. ↑,
78', Wormleighton J. 🟨,
82', Simons X. ↓, Dalby S. ↑,
84', Vale J. ↓, Jacobs M. ↑,
85', Wormleighton J. ↓, Guinness-Walker N. ↑,
86', Forino-Joseph C. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 15 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 0.

Northampton is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bolton is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Bolton has had a series of home games.

In this match, Bolton is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Northampton: Guthrie J. (Knee Injury) Shaw L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bolton: Adeboyejo V. (Knee Injury) Forrester W. (Hamstring Injury) Osei-Tutu J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Northampton: List E. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Northampton won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 1:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Bolton Wanderers - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 48.66%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English EFL Trophy
23.09.25	Northampton Town - Chelsea U21	3:0 ✺
English League One
20.09.25	Wycombe Wanderers - Northampton Town	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Northampton Town - Blackpool	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Leyton Orient - Northampton Town	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Northampton Town - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WLWWW
- Bolton Wanderers
English EFL Trophy
23.09.25	Bolton Wanderers - Manchester City U21	3:0 ✺
English League One
20.09.25	Bolton Wanderers - Wigan Athletic	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	Leyton Orient - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Bolton Wanderers - AFC Wimbledon	3:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Bolton Wanderers - Rotherham United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
28.01.25	Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town	3:1
01.10.24	Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers	2:4
10.02.24	Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers	1:1
21.10.23	Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town	2:1
18.03.17	Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town	2:1
26.11.16	Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:1

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