Match Info

A-League Women - Round 12

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday

Location: Sky Stadium (Wellington)

Referee: Keighley A-M. (Nzl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Channel 10, Paramount+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Wellington Phoenix		Melbourne City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.88	3.35	2.15
	3.31	3.88	1.98	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.2
	3.19	3.43	2.15	Watch
	2.75	3.5	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↓ (3.1)	3.45 ↓ (3.75)	2.14 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wellington Phoenix
30.7%

Draw
26.5%

Melbourne City
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

23.8%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

23.2%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Melbourne City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Melbourne City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Wellington (votes: 1 - 50%). Melbourne City (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Wellington (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Melbourne City (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Melbourne City (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Wellington (votes: 2 - 40%). Melbourne City (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Esson V. (G) 5. Walker E. 4. Barry M. (C) 16. Van der Meer M. 23. Nunn B. 7. Jale G. 15. Brazendale D. 21. Wall L. 24. Vlok P. 20. Main E. 14. Leon L.	24. Mieres M. (G) 13. Stott R. (C) 5. Otto T. 3. Turner D. 8. Apostolakis A. 9. McNamara H. 18. Davidson L. 6. McKenna L. 15. Uchendu C. 7. Butrus D. 21. Keane A.
Substitutes
28. Bartlett G. 27. Benson Z. 11. Elliott M. 22. Feinberg-Danieli A. (G) 32. Pijnenburg E. 31. Woods M.	23. Barbieri M. (G) 22. Henry B. 11. Jackson D. 17. Jugovic K. 16. Roestbakken K. 2. Wilson E.
Coaches
Priestman B.	Matricciani M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, McKenna L. ⚽, Butrus D. (A),
21', 0 - 2, Keane A. ⚽,
31', Davidson L. ↓, Roestbakken K. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Leon L. ↓, Elliott M. ↑,
46', Wall L. ↓, Woods M. ↑,
46', Butrus D. ↓, Henry B. ↑,
54', Brazendale D. ↓, Pijnenburg E. ↑,
85', Uchendu C. ↓, Jackson D. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Woods M. ⚽, Nunn B. (A),
90+1', McNamara H. ↓, Wilson E. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 0.

In recent matches, Wellington has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Melbourne City is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Wellington has had a series of away games.

Recently, Melbourne City has had a series of home games.

Melbourne City will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 3:15. (average 0.4:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Wellington won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wellington Phoenix Women
Australian A-League Women
03.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	2:2 ✺
30.12.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Wellington Phoenix	0:3 ✺
19.12.25	Wellington Phoenix - Sydney FC	7:0 ✺
12.12.25	Perth Glory - Wellington Phoenix	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWWLL
- Melbourne City FC Women
Australian A-League Women
04.01.26	Melbourne City - Sydney FC	1:0 ✺
28.12.25	Melbourne City - Perth Glory	3:1 ✺
23.12.25	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Canberra United - Melbourne City	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
06.12.25	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	1:0
29.03.25	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	0:1
28.12.24	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	2:1
20.01.24	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	2:1
14.10.23	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	0:1
19.11.22	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	1:4
09.01.22	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	4:0

Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide