Match Info

A-League - Round 25

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Sky Stadium (Wellington)

Referee: Abraham B. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 5
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Wellington Phoenix		Western Sydney Wanderers

	1	X	2
	2.01	4.1	3.1	Watch
	2.08	3.7	3.15	Watch
	2.12	3.95	3.27
	2.09	4.03	3.13	Watch
	2.05	3.75	3
	2.03	4.19	3.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.5)	3.95 ↑ (3.81)	3.17 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wellington Phoenix
46%

Draw
24%

Western Sydney Wanderers
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

24.8%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

24.9%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Wellington Phoenix's performance.

Western Sydney Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Western Sydney Wanderers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Wellington Phoenix that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Western Sydney Wanderers than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Western Sydney Wanderers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Wellington will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Western Sydney will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wellington: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Oluwayemi J. (G) 6. Payne T. 28. Tuiloma B. 15. Hughes I. 18. Kelly-Heald L. 20. Najjarine R. 14. Rufer A. (C) 8. Retre P. 25. Nagasawa K. 7. Eze I. 3. Piper C.	30. Holmes J. (G) 5. Scicluna D. 24. Barrie N. 22. Pantazopoulos A. 3. Gersbach A. 8. Ugarkovic S. 32. Thurgate A. 38. Rose J. 23. Kraev B. 7. Fraser R. 26. Borrello B. (C)
Substitutes
11. Armiento C. 29. Brooke-Smith L. 12. Edwards D. 4. James M. 16. Kartum S. 30. Kelly-Heald A. (G) 27. Sheridan M.	25. Brillante J. 11. Ibusuki H. 39. Lual A. 53. Morrison O. 20. Thomas L. (G) 19. Tongyik R. 52. Waraga A.
Coaches
Greenacre C.	van Egmond G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Eze I. ⚽, Payne T. (A),
39', Rufer A. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Borrello B. ⚽, Thurgate A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 2 - 1, Nagasawa K. ⚽, Payne T. (A),
61', Rose J. ↓, Waraga A. ↑,
62', Payne T. ↓, Sheridan M. ↑,
62', Najjarine R. ↓, Kartum S. ↑,
78', Ugarkovic S. ↓, Ibusuki H. ↑,
83', Piper C. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 1.

Wellington is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Western Sydney is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Wellington has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Wellington: Singh S. (Inactive) Walker N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Western Sydney: Farrell J. (Inactive) Simmons A. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:35. (average 1.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Wellington won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.5:1.2).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Wellington Phoenix: 4.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	WS Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Western Sydney Wanderers - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.43%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League
12.04.26	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Wellington Phoenix - Perth Glory	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.8 LWWWT
- Western Sydney Wanderers
Australian A-League
11.04.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Sydney	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Melbourne City - Western Sydney Wanderers	3:0 ✺
20.03.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Adelaide United	2:4 ✺
13.03.26	Brisbane Roar - Western Sydney Wanderers	2:2 ✺
07.03.26	Newcastle Jets - Western Sydney Wanderers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
13.02.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Wellington Phoenix	2:2
29.03.25	Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers	2:2
22.12.24	Western Sydney Wanderers - Wellington Phoenix	4:1
22.12.23	Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers	2:0
22.10.23	Western Sydney Wanderers - Wellington Phoenix	0:0
21.04.23	Western Sydney Wanderers - Wellington Phoenix	4:0
10.12.22	Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers	1:1

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