Match Info

Premier League - Round 18

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday


	Welwalo Adigrat		Arba Minch

	1	X	2
	2.62	2.42	3.15
	2.92	2.16	3.59
	2.75	2.35	3.36	Watch
	2.5	2.45	3.1
	2.65	2.34	3.38
	3	2.12	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.59)	2.31 ↓ (2.66)	3.35 ↑ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Welwalo Adigrat
33.3%

Draw
39.5%

Arba Minch
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

34.6%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

33.6%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Welwalo Adigrat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Arba Minch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Welwalo Adigrat than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arba Minch than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Welwalo Adigrat - Arba Minch Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', 0 - 1, ⚽,
66', 1 - 1, ⚽,
73', (Penalty Awarded),
88', 1 - 2, Iyassu T. ⚽, Philip J. (A),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 20 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Welwalo Adigrat has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arba Minch has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Welwalo Adigrat won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Welwalo Adigrat won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Welwalo Adigrat	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Welwalo Adigrat University FC
Ethiopian Premier League
25.01.26	Hadiya Hossana - Welwalo Adigrat	1:2 ✺
21.01.26	Welwalo Adigrat - Sheger Ketema	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	Ethiopian Medhin - Welwalo Adigrat	0:0 ✺
08.01.26	Welwalo Adigrat - Adama City	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Ethio Electric - Welwalo Adigrat	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WTTTT
- Arba Minch FC
Ethiopian Premier League
25.01.26	Arba Minch - Fasil Kenema	2:3 ✺
21.01.26	Shire Endaselassie - Arba Minch	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Arba Minch - Mechal	0:2 ✺
08.01.26	Sidama Coffee - Arba Minch	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Arba Minch - Hawassa City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
23.05.25	Welwalo Adigrat - Arba Minch	1:1
23.11.24	Arba Minch - Welwalo Adigrat	2:0
10.12.17	Arba Minch - Welwalo Adigrat	1:1

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