Match Info

ENGLAND: National League South - Round 28

Date: 25 January 2025, Saturday


	Weston-super-Mare		Welling United

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.5	4.6
	1.68	3.77	4.88
	1.69	3.72	4.88
	1.85	3.4	4
	1.63	3.78	4.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.82)	3.63 ↑ (3.55)	4.65 ↑ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Weston-super-Mare
54.7%

Draw
25.5%

Welling United
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

25.8%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

18.4%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Weston-super-Mare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Welling United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Weston-super-Mare than the current prediction. (-18.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Weston-super-Mare that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Welling United than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Welling United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Weston super Mare - Welling United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 1 - 0, Kadji D. ⚽,
18', 1 - 1, Winfield D. ⚽,
28', 1 - 2, Ballard-McBride F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
56', 1 - 3, Davis J. ⚽,
86', 1 - 4, Walker Z. ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 8 and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Weston-super-Mare won 2.

Recent matches Weston-super-Mare is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Welling is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Welling could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Weston-super-Mare is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Weston-super-Mare won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 18:21 (average 1.4:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Weston-super-Mare won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:7 (average 1.6:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Weston-super-Mare
English National League South
18.01.25	Dorking Wanderers - Weston-super-Mare	1:3 ✺
11.01.25	Weston-super-Mare - St Albans City	0:0 ✺
04.01.25	Tonbridge Angels - Weston-super-Mare	2:0 ✺
01.01.25	Weston-super-Mare - Chippenham Town	1:3 ✺
26.12.24	Truro City - Weston-super-Mare	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTLLT
- Welling United
English National League South
18.01.25	Welling United - Boreham Wood	0:1 ✺
14.01.25	Welling United - Hampton & Richmond Borough	2:3 ✺
11.01.25	Torquay United - Welling United	3:1 ✺
07.01.25	Welling United - Weymouth	2:1 ✺
01.01.25	Maidstone United - Welling United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
05.10.24	Welling United - Weston-super-Mare	1:3
16.03.24	Welling United - Weston-super-Mare	3:1
02.12.23	Weston-super-Mare - Welling United	4:2
23.03.19	Weston-super-Mare - Welling United	0:1
17.11.18	Welling United - Weston-super-Mare	3:1
21.04.18	Welling United - Weston-super-Mare	3:1
English FA Trophy
25.11.17	Welling United - Weston-super-Mare	0:1

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