Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 29

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Koning Willem II Stadion (Tilburg)

Referee: Nagtegaal M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World, Sportsnet World Now
Chile	Disney+
China	K-Ball
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 9
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports 4
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Kenya	Gotv
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 3
Portugal	Sport TV7
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 7, SportKlub 9
Slovakia	Arena sport 1, Sport TV2
South-america	ESPN 4 South
Spain	GolStadium
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Exxen, TV 8
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Disney+, Triller TV+


	Willem II		Ajax

	1	X	2
	9	5.25	1.33	Watch
	8.5	5	1.36
	9.2	5.4	1.32	Watch
	9.17	5.27	1.33	Watch
	8.5	4.75	1.36
	9.18	5.36	1.36	Watch
	9.2	5.4	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.96 ↑ (8.05)	5.2 ↑ (5.01)	1.34 ↓ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Willem II
10.6%

Draw
18.3%

Ajax
71.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.7%

18.8%

69.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.2%

18%

72.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	15%	75%

Willem II - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Willem II will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Ajax will win (votes: 15 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 56% – 94%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Willem II (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Ajax (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ajax will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Willem II (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Ajax (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Didillon T. (G) 48. Mathijsen J. 33. St. Jago T. 4. Schouten E. (C) 5. Sigurgeirsson R. 8. Bosch J. 14. Sandra C. 34. Lachkar A. 11. Kehrer E. 18. Bokila J. 16. Meerveld R.	16. Matheus (G) 3. Gaaei A. 37. Sutalo J. 13. Kaplan A. 4. Hato J. 18. Klaassen D. 6. Henderson J. (C) 8. Taylor K. 20. Traore B. 9. Brobbey B. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
21. Ahmed Fatah A. 7. Doodeman N. 17. Joosten P. 77. Kaygin D. 22. Nizet R. 15. Pivas M. 41. Schut M. (G) 19. Sylla Y. 24. van den Berg C. (G)	23. Berghuis S. 17. Edvardsen O. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 12. Gorter J. (G) 36. Janse D. 29. Rasmussen C. 44. Regeer Y. 2. Rosa L. 24. Rugani D. 51. Setford C. (G) 42. Verschuren N. 25. Weghorst W.
Coaches
Maes P.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Mathijsen J. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Kehrer E. ⚽, Bokila J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', Brobbey B. ↓, Weghorst W. ↑,
59', Klaassen D. ↓, Berghuis S. ↑,
69', Hato J. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
69', Godts M. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
71', Bokila J. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Edvardsen O. ⚽, Berghuis S. (A),
76', Mathijsen J. ↓, Nizet R. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Weghorst W. ⚽, Fitz-Jim K. (A),
84', Sigurgeirsson R. ↓, Ahmed Fatah A. ↑,
84', Meerveld R. ↓, Doodeman N. ↑,
84', Sandra C. ↓, Pivas M. ↑,
90', Henderson J. ↓, Rugani D. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Willem II won 0.

Willem II has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Ajax is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Willem II could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ajax is certain favorite.

There will not play in Willem II: Behounek R. (Yellow Cards) Lambert B. (Inactive) Mathieu D. (Knee Injury) Sandra C. (Inactive) Tirpan M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Ajax: Baas Y. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Pasveer R. (Groin Injury) Regeer Y. (Ankle Injury)

Our prediction for today's Ajax to win the game is with odds 1.35.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Willem II won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 15 matches and goals 11:54 (average 0.6:2.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Willem II won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 5:21 (average 0.6:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
04.04.25	Heerenveen - Willem II	3:1 ✺
29.03.25	Willem II - Almere City	0:2 ✺
16.03.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Willem II	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Willem II - Utrecht	2:3 ✺
02.03.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Willem II	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
06.04.25	Ajax - NAC Breda	3:1 ✺
30.03.25	PSV Eindhoven - Ajax	0:2 ✺
16.03.25	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.03.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Ajax	4:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
09.03.25	Zwolle - Ajax	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
27.10.24	Ajax - Willem II	1:0
19.02.22	Willem II - Ajax	0:1
02.12.21	Ajax - Willem II	5:0
28.01.21	Ajax - Willem II	3:1
23.12.20	Willem II - Ajax	1:1
26.04.20	Willem II - Ajax	Canceled
06.12.19	Ajax - Willem II	0:2

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