Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 28

Date: 4 April 2025, Friday

Location: Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen)

Referee: van den Kerkhof M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
Serbia	Arena Sport 6


	Heerenveen		Willem II

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6	Watch
	1.55	4.1	6
	1.49	4.25	6.9	Watch
	1.48	4.29	7.18	Watch
	1.57	3.9	5.5
	1.47	4.5	6.67	Watch
	1.49	4.25	6.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.77)	4.23 ↑ (3.89)	6.45 ↑ (4.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heerenveen
62.9%

Draw
22.4%

Willem II
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

24.2%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

23.9%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Heerenveen's performance.

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Willem II might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Heerenveen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Willem II could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Heerenveen - Willem II Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Heerenveen (1.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Heerenveen will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Heerenveen will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Heerenveen (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Noppert A. (G) 45. Braude O. 4. Kersten S. 17. Hopland N. 11. Kohlert M. 16. Linday M. 8. Brouwers L. (C) 30. Jahanbakhsh A. 14. Smans L. 10. Sebaoui I. 18. Nicolaescu I.	1. Didillon T. (G) 7. Doodeman N. 33. St. Jago T. 4. Schouten E. (C) 30. Behounek R. 5. Sigurgeirsson R. 8. Bosch J. 34. Lachkar A. 17. Joosten P. 18. Bokila J. 16. Meerveld R.
Substitutes
15. Ali H. 23. Bekkema J. (G) 6. Conde A. 50. Gurbuz E. 2. Hall D. 24. Lukovic M. 7. Nunnely C. 28. Petrov H. 26. Rallis D. 20. Trenskow J. 13. van der Hart M. (G) 21. van Ee E.	21. Ahmed Fatah A. 77. Kaygin D. 11. Kehrer E. 48. Mathijsen J. 22. Nizet R. 15. Pivas M. 41. Schut M. (G) 19. Sylla Y. 24. van den Berg C. (G) 50. van Loon P.
Coaches
Veldman R.	Maes P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Nicolaescu I. ⚽, Brouwers L. (A),
32', 2 - 0, Kersten S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Doodeman N. ↓, Kehrer E. ↑,
46', Brouwers L. ↓, van Ee E. ↑,
64', Sigurgeirsson R. ↓, Nizet R. ↑,
64', Joosten P. ↓, Ahmed Fatah A. ↑,
66', 3 - 0, Sebaoui I. ⚽, van Ee E. (A),
72', Nicolaescu I. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
75', 3 - 1, Bosch J. ⚽, Kehrer E. (A),
79', Sebaoui I. ↓, Trenskow J. ↑,
81', Lachkar A. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,
88', Behounek R. 🟨,
89', Jahanbakhsh A. ↓, Gurbuz E. ↑,
89', Linday M. ↓, Conde A. ↑,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Heerenveen won 3.

Recent matches Heerenveen is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Willem II has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Heerenveen is certain favorite.

There will not play in Heerenveen: Bochniewicz P. (Knee Injury) Braude O. (Yellow Cards) Nunnely C. (Inactive)

There will not play in Willem II: Lambert B. (Inactive) Mathieu D. (Knee Injury) Sandra C. (Inactive) Tirpan M. (Inactive) Vaesen K. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Heerenveen: Trenskow J. (Knock)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Heerenveen won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 37:25 (average 1.9:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Heerenveen won 8 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 22:11 (average 2.2:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
30.03.25	Utrecht - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
15.03.25	Heerenveen - Heracles Almelo	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	PSV Eindhoven - Heerenveen	2:1 ✺
02.03.25	Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
16.02.25	Zwolle - Heerenveen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTLWT
- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
29.03.25	Willem II - Almere City	0:2 ✺
16.03.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Willem II	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Willem II - Utrecht	2:3 ✺
02.03.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Willem II	4:0 ✺
15.02.25	Willem II - Groningen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
08.12.24	Willem II - Heerenveen	1:2
05.03.22	Willem II - Heerenveen	0:0
21.11.21	Heerenveen - Willem II	2:1
13.03.21	Willem II - Heerenveen	3:1
12.09.20	Heerenveen - Willem II	2:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
22.01.20	Heerenveen - Willem II	3:2 penalties
Dutch Eredivisie
13.12.19	Heerenveen - Willem II	1:2

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