Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Promotion - Semi-finals

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Koning Willem II Stadion (Tilburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Bos A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Netherlands	20:00	Canal+, ESPN


	Willem II		Almere City

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.22	3.55	2.98	Watch
	2.17	3.8	3.09
	2.19	3.37	3.14	Watch
	2.15	3.5	2.9
	2.15	3.6	3.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.12)	3.54 ↓ (3.64)	3.06 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Willem II
43.1%

Draw
26.4%

Almere City
30.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.9%

25.6%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

24.6%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

The chances for Almere City have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almere City than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Willem II - Almere City Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Willem II will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Almere City will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Willem II: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Almere City (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Almere City (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Didillon Hodl T. (G) 3. Stam F. 30. Behounek R. 4. Hoogma J. (C) 24. Tjoe a On N. 7. Doodeman N. 8. Twigt C. 6. Besselink G. 20. El Allouchi M. 9. Haen D. 19. van Aalst U.	12. Kuijsten T. (G) 2. Reith B. 22. van de Blaak E. 4. Lawrence J. (C) 5. Bijleveld T. 21. el Dahri H. 6. Cornelisse E. 17. Poku E. 10. Rijkhoff J. 40. Dors M. 9. Druijf F.
Substitutes
23. Abildgaard L. 47. Baartmans S. 17. Bamba S. 2. Ciranni A. 11. Culum A. 49. de Jonge M. 31. de Leeuw K. (G) 15. Et Taibi A. 14. Mathijsen J. 21. van der Steen W. (G) 22. van Loon P. 28. Verheydt T.	8. de Haan M. 19. de Nijs O. 15. Engel M. 29. Huisman B. 23. Jacobs Ja. 3. Jacobs Jo. 20. Kalisvaart J. 28. Providence R. 25. Sam A. 16. Takahashi N. 30. van der Wilt J. (G) 1. Wendlinger J. (G)
Coaches
Stegeman J.	Rijsdijk J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', 1 - 0, van Aalst U. ⚽,
68', Cornelisse E. ↓, Jacobs Ja. ↑,
69', Bijleveld T. ↓, Takahashi N. ↑,
70', Jacobs Ja. 🟨,
70', van Aalst U. ↓, Bamba S. ↑,
74', el Dahri H. 🟨,
79', el Dahri H. ↓, de Haan M. ↑,
79', Rijkhoff J. ↓, Huisman B. ↑,
79', Reith B. ↓, de Nijs O. ↑,
80', El Allouchi M. ↓, van Loon P. ↑,
80', Haen D. ↓, Baartmans S. ↑,
82', de Haan M. 🟥,
85', Twigt C. ↓, Et Taibi A. ↑,
85', 2 - 0, Et Taibi A. ⚽, van Loon P. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 1-0.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 4.

Willem II is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Almere City is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Willem II may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Willem II could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Willem II: Lachkar A. (Groin Injury) Schuurman J. (Knock)

There are questionable in Willem II: Ciranni A. (Injury) Zarrouk A. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:8. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Willem II won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 2.6:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	10:32	-22	2

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Almere City: 4.06% Willem II: 0.06%

Last Results with these Odds

Almere City - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 30.47%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
13.05.26	Almere City - Willem II	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	Willem II - Waalwijk	1:1 ✺
05.05.26	Waalwijk - Willem II	0:1 ✺
Dutch Eerste Divisie
24.04.26	Dordrecht - Willem II	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Willem II - Jong AZ Alkmaar	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WTWWW
- Almere City FC
Dutch Eredivisie
13.05.26	Almere City - Willem II	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	De Graafschap - Almere City	2:2 ✺
06.05.26	Almere City - De Graafschap	3:1 ✺
02.05.26	Almere City - Den Bosch	3:0 ✺
29.04.26	Den Bosch - Almere City	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
13.05.26	Almere City - Willem II	0:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.04.26	Willem II - Almere City	2:1
22.08.25	Almere City - Willem II	0:1
Dutch Eredivisie
29.03.25	Willem II - Almere City	0:2
04.10.24	Almere City - Willem II	0:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
15.01.23	Almere City - Willem II	1:0
21.10.22	Willem II - Almere City	1:1

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