Match Info

Isthmian League Premier Division - Round 14

Date: 20 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished


	Wingate & Finchley		Carshalton Athletic

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.50	2.40
	2.38	3.35	2.45
	2.43	3.61	2.4
	2.45	3.72	2.44	Watch
	2.35	3.5	2.35
	2.47	3.48	2.33
	2.37	3.45	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.38)	3.52 ↑ (3.3)	2.4 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wingate & Finchley
37.3%

Draw
25.5%

Carshalton Athletic
37.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37%

26.7%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

25%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wingate & Finchley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Carshalton Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wingate & Finchley than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carshalton Athletic than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Wingate & Finchley - Carshalton Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Botti G. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Safa J. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 1, Chukwu A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
52', 3 - 1, Nzala A. ⚽,
69', 3 - 2, Saraiva F. ⚽,
85', Hernandez L. (Penalty Awarded),
87', 4 - 2, Moutawafiq S. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 11th and 5th in the Promotion - Isthmian League Premier Division Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wingate & Finchley won 1.

In recent outings, Wingate & Finchley has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Carshalton has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Wingate & Finchley may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Wingate & Finchley has recorded 7 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 31:30 (averaging 1.8:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Wingate & Finchley against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 17:6 goals (averaging 2.1:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Carshalton	15	7	1	7	23:28	-5	22
12	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	24:23	1	20

Last Results with these Odds

Wingate & Finchley - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 37.03%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wingate & Finchley
English Isthmian League Premier Division
17.10.26	Wingate & Finchley - Stanway Rovers	4:1 ✺
13.10.26	Wingate & Finchley - Ramsgate	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Dartford - Wingate & Finchley	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
06.10.26	Wingate & Finchley - Bedford Town	1:3 ✺
03.10.26	Bedford Town - Wingate & Finchley	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWLLT
- Carshalton Athletic
English Isthmian League Premier Division
17.10.26	Dulwich Hamlet - Carshalton Athletic	2:2 ✺
12.10.26	Carshalton Athletic - Enfield Town	1:2 ✺
10.10.26	Carshalton Athletic - St Albans City	0:1 ✺
05.10.26	Carshalton Athletic - Eastbourne Borough	0:4 ✺
03.10.26	Ramsgate - Carshalton Athletic	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Isthmian League Premier Division
10.08.26	Carshalton Athletic - Wingate & Finchley	2:0
21.03.26	Carshalton Athletic - Wingate & Finchley	4:1
06.12.25	Wingate & Finchley - Carshalton Athletic	2:2
05.11.24	Wingate & Finchley - Carshalton Athletic	2:1
12.08.24	Carshalton Athletic - Wingate & Finchley	3:2
27.04.24	Wingate & Finchley - Carshalton Athletic	3:0
25.11.23	Carshalton Athletic - Wingate & Finchley	2:3

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