Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Molineux Stadium (Wolverhampton)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Wolverhampton Wanderers		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.55
	3	3.05	2.6
	3.1	3.11	2.63
	10.29	3.85	1.42	Watch
	2.45	3.25	2.9
	3.03	3.2	2.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.15 ↑ (2.47)	3.26 ↓ (3.4)	2.46 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolverhampton Wanderers
25.3%

Draw
32.2%

Leeds United
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

28.6%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

29.7%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolverhampton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Wolverhampton Wanderers's form might have worsened.

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leeds United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolverhampton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Wolverhampton Wanderers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leeds United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	43.3%	16.7%

Wolverhampton Wanderers - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Wolverhampton will win (votes: 12 - 41.4%). Leeds will win (votes: 5 - 17.2%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 41.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wolverhampton: 23.5% – 59.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolverhampton (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Leeds (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Wolverhampton (2.07) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Leeds (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolverhampton (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Leeds (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sa J. (G) 15. Mosquera Y. 12. Agbadou E. 24. Toti (C) 38. Tchatchoua J. 37. Krejci L. 8. Joao Gomes 21. Gomes R. 27. Bellegarde J. 28. Lopez F. 14. Arokodare T.	26. Darlow K. (G) 2. Bogle J. 6. Rodon J. 5. Struijk P. 3. Gudmundsson G. 18. Stach A. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 8. Longstaff S. 11. Aaronson B. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 19. Okafor N.
Substitutes
7. Andre 10. Arias J. 3. Bueno H. 4. Bueno S. 26. Hoever K. 11. Hwang Hee-Chan 31. Johnstone S. (G) 9. Larsen J. S. 5. Munetsi M.	15. Bijol J. 45. Gray H. 44. Gruev I. 20. Harrison J. 24. Justin J. 16. Meslier I. (G) 14. Nmecha L. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.
Coaches
Pereira V.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
8', 1 - 0, Krejci L. ⚽, Lopez F. (A),
12', Lopez F. 🟨,
31', 1 - 1, Calvert-Lewin D. ⚽,
39', 1 - 2, Stach A. ⚽,
41', Bogle J. 🟨,
45', 1 - 3, Okafor N. ⚽, Stach A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lopez F. ↓, Larsen J. S. ↑,
46', Gomes R. ↓, Bueno H. ↑,
46', Bellegarde J. ↓, Munetsi M. ↑,
70', Okafor N. ↓, Harrison J. ↑,
72', Toti ↓, Andre ↑,
72', Mosquera Y. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
83', Longstaff S. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
83', Bogle J. ↓, Justin J. ↑,
90+2', Calvert-Lewin D. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
90+2', Aaronson B. ↓, Gruev I. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolverhampton won 1.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Wolverhampton: Chiwome L. (Knee Injury) Larsen J. S. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Leeds: Lucas Perri (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Wolverhampton: Hoever K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Gnonto W. (Calf Injury) James D. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Wolverhampton won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 28:24. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolverhampton won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:17. (average 2:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Wolverhampton Wanderers - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 39.34%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wolverhampton Wanderers
English Premier League
13.09.25	Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Everton	2:3 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - West Ham United	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Bournemouth - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Manchester City	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLL
- Leeds United
English Premier League
13.09.25	Fulham - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Leeds United	2:1 penalties ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Arsenal - Leeds United	5:0 ✺
18.08.25	Leeds United - Everton	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
18.03.23	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Leeds United	2:4
English League Cup
09.11.22	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Leeds United	1:0
English Premier League
06.08.22	Leeds United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:1
18.03.22	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Leeds United	2:3
23.10.21	Leeds United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:1
19.02.21	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Leeds United	1:0
19.10.20	Leeds United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:1

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