Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 32

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Workington		Morpeth Town

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.05
	2.15	3.36	2.98
	2.07	3.66	3.2	Watch
	2.02	3.42	3.19
	2.4	3.33	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.48)	3.41 (3.41)	3.02 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Workington
42.8%

Draw
26.8%

Morpeth Town
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

27.2%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

26.4%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Workington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Workington's performance.

Morpeth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Workington than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Workington - Morpeth Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
88', 1 - 0, Hunter L. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 19 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Workington won 1.

Workington has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Morpeth is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Workington may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Workington won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Workington won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 2.3:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Workington	12	6	3	3	23:19	4	21

Last Results with these Odds

Morpeth Town - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.31%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Workington
English NPL Premier Division
14.02.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Workington	3:3 ✺
07.02.26	Workington - Ilkeston	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Prescot Cables - Workington	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Workington - Hebburn Town	0:1 ✺
13.01.26	United of Manchester - Workington	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 TWTLT
- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
14.02.26	Morpeth Town - Warrington Rylands	0:4 ✺
31.01.26	Morpeth Town - Guiseley	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Morpeth Town - United of Manchester	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ilkeston - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
18.10.25	Morpeth Town - Workington	2:0
21.04.25	Morpeth Town - Workington	1:0
26.12.24	Workington - Morpeth Town	2:2
English FA Trophy
05.10.24	Workington - Morpeth Town	3:1
English NPL Premier Division
09.12.23	Workington - Morpeth Town	2:2
15.08.23	Morpeth Town - Workington	3:0

Upcoming Matches