Match Info

EFL Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Racecourse Ground (Wrexham)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Wrexham		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	3.05	Watch
	2.32	3.35	3.05	Watch
	2.25	3.5	3.27
	2.22	3.21	3.10	Watch
	2.36	3.44	3.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.22)	3.35 ↑ (3.21)	3.12 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wrexham
41.5%

Draw
28.2%

Cardiff City
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

28.7%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

29.5%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Wrexham have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wrexham than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	30.8%	15.4%

Wrexham - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Wrexham will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Cardiff will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wrexham: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Wrexham (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Burton C. (G) 4. Cleworth M. (C) 6. Coady C. 14. Thomason G. 29. Barnett R. 15. Dobson G. 20. Rathbone O. 27. O'Brien L. 47. Longman R. 33. Broadhead N. 28. Smith S.	13. Trott N. (G) 44. Kpakio R. 12. Chambers C. (C) 2. Fish W. 3. Bagan J. 27. Colwill J. 6. Wintle R. 10. Colwill R. 8. Kellyman O. 45. Ashford C. 22. Salech Y.
Substitutes
9. Hardie R. 5. Hyam D. 37. James M. 12. Kabore I. 7. McClean J. 40. Moore A. 1. Okonkwo A. (G) 24. Scarr D. 10. Windass J.	39. Davies I. 48. Lawlor D. 28. Mafico D. 38. Ng P. 29. Nyakuhwa T. 4. Osho G. 18. Robertson A. 14. Turnbull D. 41. Turner M. (G)
Coaches
Parkinson P.	Barry-Murphy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Salech Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kellyman O. ↓, Davies I. ↑,
46', Broadhead N. ↓, Windass J. ↑,
46', Rathbone O. ↓, James M. ↑,
46', Smith S. ↓, Moore K. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Moore K. ⚽,
54', Bagan J. 🟨,
56', Kpakio R. 🟨,
66', Wintle R. ↓, Robertson A. ↑,
66', Colwill J. ↓, Turnbull D. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Fish W. ⚽, Bagan J. (A),
77', Coady C. ↓, Hardie R. ↑,
77', Barnett R. ↓, Kabore I. ↑,
82', Bagan J. ↓, Ng P. ↑,
88', Ashford C. ↓, Osho G. ↑,
90+2', Robertson A. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Cardiff may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Cardiff has had a series of home games.

Wrexham could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Wrexham: Ashfield H. (Ankle Injury) Cannon A. (Knee Injury) James A. (Inactive) Lee E. (Inactive) Rodriguez J. (Leg Injury) Ward D. (Elbow Injury)

There will not play in Cardiff: King E. (Knee Injury) Tanner O. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Wrexham: Brunt L. (Injury) Rathbone O. (Inactive) Sheaf B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Alnwick J. (Hamstring Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Cardiff City - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 29.74%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wrexham AFC
English League Championship
25.10.25	Middlesbrough - Wrexham	1:1 ✺
22.10.25	Wrexham - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Stoke City - Wrexham	1:0 ✺
03.10.25	Wrexham - Birmingham City	1:1 ✺
30.09.25	Leicester City - Wrexham	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWLTT
- Cardiff City
English League One
25.10.25	Bolton Wanderers - Cardiff City	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Cardiff City - Reading	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Cardiff City - Newport County	0:1 ✺
English League One
04.10.25	Cardiff City - Leyton Orient	4:3 ✺
30.09.25	Cardiff City - Burton Albion	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLWL

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