Match Info

YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: MNHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium (Yokohama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	Fuji TV Next


	Yokohama FC		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.3	1.83	Watch
	4.5	2.9	1.8
	3.4	2.8	2.38	Watch
	3.72	2.78	2.42
	3.52	2.71	2.43	Watch
	3.4	2.7	2.3
	3.49	2.78	2.41	Watch
	3.4	2.8	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (3.3)	2.85 ↑ (2.82)	2.24 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yokohama FC
25%

Draw
33.1%

Machida Zelvia
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

33.1%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

31.7%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yokohama FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yokohama FC than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	83.3%	0%

Yokohama FC - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Yokohama FC will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Yokohama FC (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Machida Zelvia (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 2nd Half - Machida Zelvia (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Yokohama FC (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Machida Zelvia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Phelipe Megiolaro (G) 22. Iwatake K. 16. Ito M. 70. Hosoi K. 3. Suzuki J. 28. Kumakura K. 34. Ogura H. 14. Nakano Y. 49. Komazawa N. 33. Muroi K. 9. Sakuragawa S.	13. Morita T. (G) 6. Mochizuki H. 50. Okamura D. 5. Dresevic I. 22. Numata T. 23. Shirasaki R. 18. Shimoda H. 26. Hayashi K. 99. Takahashi D. 9. Fujio S. 15. Duke M.
Substitutes
39. Endo T. 5. Fukumori A. 32. Ishii R. (G) 15. Ito S. 27. Leo Bahia 23. Michel Lima 18. Mori K. 13. Ogawa K. 30. Yamazaki K.	49. Kuwayama K. 16. Mae H. 30. Nakashima Y. 20. Nishimura T. 90. Oh Se-Hun 8. Sento K. 3. Shoji G. 1. Tani K. (G) 39. Vasquez B.
Coaches
Yomoda S.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Dresevic I. ↓, Shoji G. ↑,
12', 0 - 1, Fujio S. ⚽,
28', Suzuki J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Numata T. ↓, Nishimura T. ↑,
65', Duke M. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
65', Komazawa N. ↓, Ogawa K. ↑,
65', Muroi K. ↓, Mori K. ↑,
65', Ito M. ↓, Fukumori A. ↑,
68', Fukumori A. 🟨,
76', Iwatake K. ↓, Endo T. ↑,
84', 1 - 1, Ogawa K. ⚽,
85', Takahashi D. ↓, Sento K. ↑,
85', Shimoda H. ↓, Mae H. ↑,
86', Nakano Y. ↓, Leo Bahia ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
91', Sakuragawa S. ↓, Michel Lima ↑,
99', Fujio S. 🟨,
101', Shirasaki R. ↓, Vasquez B. ↑,
112', Hayashi K. 🟨,
Penalties (3 - 1)
1, Sento K. (Pen),
1, Ogawa K. (Pen),
2, Shoji G. (Pen),
2, Fukumori A. (Pen),
3, Vasquez B. (Pen),
3, Mori K. (Pen),
4, Okamura D. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Yokohama FC won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Yokohama FC may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Machida Zelvia could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Yokohama FC won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Yokohama FC won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.2:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Machida Zelvia - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.52%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yokohama FC
Japan J1 League
17.05.25	Shonan Bellmare - Yokohama FC	0:1 ✺
14.05.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Yokohama FC	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	Yokohama FC - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
06.05.25	Tokyo Verdy - Yokohama FC	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Yokohama FC - Kashima Antlers	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWLL
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
17.05.25	Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol	3:0 ✺
11.05.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia	2:2 ✺
07.05.25	Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Kashima Antlers - Machida Zelvia	1:0 ✺
29.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
08.03.25	Yokohama FC - Machida Zelvia	0:2
Japan J2 League
27.08.22	Machida Zelvia - Yokohama FC	0:1
27.04.22	Yokohama FC - Machida Zelvia	1:1
22.09.19	Machida Zelvia - Yokohama FC	0:0
12.05.19	Yokohama FC - Machida Zelvia	1:1
04.08.18	Yokohama FC - Machida Zelvia	2:3
06.05.18	Machida Zelvia - Yokohama FC	1:0

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