Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 6

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa (Erechim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping


	Ypiranga		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3	3.3
	2.03	3.1	3.55	Watch
	2.14	3.13	3.92
	2.2	3.07	3.5	Watch
	1.95	2.9	3.75
	2.06	3.35	3.5	Watch
	2.03	3.1	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.1)	3.09 ↓ (3.15)	3.58 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ypiranga
44.5%

Draw
29.8%

Náutico Capibaribe
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

29.1%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

28.6%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ypiranga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ypiranga than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Ypiranga - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Edson (C) 19. Caique 5. Charles Raphael 9. Cristiano 99. Danielzinho 32. Fabao 30. Joao Paulo 23. Marlone 7. Roger 2. Vitor Marinho 3. Willian Gomes	19. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 18. Auremir (C) 80. Bruno Mezenga 33. Carlinhos 23. Igor Fernandes 12. Kelvin 8. Marco Antonio 30. Marco Antonio 20. Patrick Allan 3. Rayan
Substitutes
8. Clayton 33. Eduardo Grechi 11. Felipe Marques 25. Gabriel Terra 10. Jean Pyerre 16. Lucas Ramos 43. Luciano 20. Maxuel Cassio . Montefiori T. 77. Pedrinho 22. Rian K. R. d. N. 40. Ze Carlos (G)	35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 13. Indio 27. Kauan Maranhao 15. Kayon 38. Leo (G) 17. Marcos Ytalo 37. Vini 1. Wellerson R. (G) 22. Wenderson
Coaches
Matheus Costa	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Marco Antonio ⚽,
33', 0 - 2, Auremir ⚽,
45+1', Muriel Becker 🟨,
45+1', 🟨,
45+3', Matheus Costa 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Cristiano ↓, Jean Pyerre ↑,
46', Joao Paulo ↓, Maxuel Cassio ↑,
57', Marlone ↓, Felipe Marques ↑,
58', Igor Fernandes 🟨,
62', Kelvin ↓, Kayon ↑,
72', Marco Antonio ↓, de Sousa Oliveira T. ↑,
73', 0 - 3, Bruno Mezenga ⚽,
83', Patrick Allan ↓, Leo Mago ↑,
83', Bruno Mezenga ↓, Wenderson ↑,
83', 🟨,
85', Roger ↓, Lucas Ramos ↑,
88', 0 - 4, Leo Mago (Pen),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 14).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ypiranga will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ypiranga won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Ypiranga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ypiranga FC
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.25	Anápolis - Ypiranga	0:0 ✺
04.05.25	Ypiranga - CS Alagoano	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Brusque - Ypiranga	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Ypiranga - Itabaiana	3:2 ✺
14.04.25	Londrina - Ypiranga	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWLWL
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança	2:0 ✺
04.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Brusque	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	São Paulo - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.04.25	CS Alagoano - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Botafogo PB	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
31.07.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Ypiranga	1:2
10.07.23	Ypiranga - Náutico Capibaribe	3:3

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