Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 15

Date: 31 October 2025, Friday


	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki		Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.1
	1.95	3.79	3.16	Watch
	1.98	3.58	3.18	Watch
	2.1	3.6	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.1)	3.64 ↑ (3.6)	3.06 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
45.5%

Draw
24.9%

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

25%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

23.9%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+4%)

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', 1 - 0, Leonowicz F. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Dunajski A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Świt won 1.

Recent performances by Świt have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tomaszów Mazowiecki's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Świt could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Świt won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:16. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Świt won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.6:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
25.10.25	ŁKS Łomża - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
18.10.25	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Znicz Biała Piska	4:0 ✺
11.10.25	Wikielec - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Broń Radom	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWLL
- Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
24.10.25	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Troszyn	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Wisła Płock II	4:1 ✺
12.10.25	Wigry Suwałki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
04.10.25	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
30.09.25	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Śląsk Wrocław	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
15.03.25	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:2
21.08.24	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:0
10.05.24	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	3:1
15.10.23	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	3:3
15.03.23	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:0
06.08.22	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:0
11.05.22	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:0

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