Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Play Out - Round 15

Date: 28 April 2025, Monday

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Żabbar St. Patrick		Melita

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.57	3.8	4.5
	1.35	4	7.5	Watch
	1.41	4.34	6.92
	1.61	3.98	4.64	Watch
	1.6	3.9	4.5
	1.6	4.05	4.8
	1.35	4	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.61)	4.01 ↑ (3.9)	5.77 ↑ (4.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Żabbar St. Patrick
61.2%

Draw
22.9%

Melita
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

23.5%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

22.5%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Żabbar St. Patrick has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Melita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Żabbar St. Patrick than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melita than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Żabbar St. Patrick - Melita Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Żabbar (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Żabbar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Camilleri L. (G) 10. Gambarte B. (C) 13. Grech Z. 11. Ilic S. 21. Jovancic S. 30. Keqi K. 95. Marcelo Santos 5. Micallef J. 19. Tavares D. 28. Vinicius Paiva 8. Wallace Bonilha	1. Mizzi G. (G) 2. Aquilina A. 6. Attard J. P. (C) 24. Barone G. 10. Debattista M. 22. Gyamfi C. 7. Mohnani K. 23. Testaferrata P. G. 13. Van de Bovenkamp M. 14. Xuereb D. 19. Yepez J.
Substitutes
16. Akpan E. I. 2. Buhagiar K. 6. Ciantar D. 22. Davey I. 3. Davey S. 99. David Oliveira 32. Djodj L. (G) 29. Fava D. 9. Gatt S. 14. Iervolino A. 23. Zammit G.	18. Attard E. 26. Bondin K. 11. Borg O. A. 20. Cassar B. 29. Clarke J. 12. Mayo L. 15. Micallef J. 21. Nick Cutajar 9. Sammut M. 27. Sanchez C. 3. Simanca A.
Coaches
Parisi A.	Mizzi C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Marcelo Santos ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Xuereb D. 🟨,
55', Aquilina A. ↓, Attard E. ↑,
55', Xuereb D. ↓, Nick Cutajar ↑,
65', Mohnani K. ↓, Cassar B. ↑,
65', Gyamfi C. ↓, Micallef J. ↑,
66', Keqi K. ↓, David Oliveira ↑,
71', 🟨,
72', Marcelo Santos 🟨,
72', 2 - 0, Tavares D. ⚽,
76', Marcelo Santos ↓, Gatt S. ↑,
76', Ilic S. ↓, Iervolino A. ↑,
76', Testaferrata P. G. ↓, Sammut M. ↑,
87', Gambarte B. ↓, Akpan E. I. ↑,
87', Tavares D. ↓, Zammit G. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Żabbar won 2.

Recent matches Żabbar is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Melita has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Żabbar could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Żabbar have a series of home games.

Recently Melita have a series of guest games.

In this match Żabbar is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Żabbar won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:7 (average 1.8:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Żabbar won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:3 (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Żabbar St. Patrick FC
Maltese Premier League
19.04.25	Żabbar St. Patrick - Balzan	2:2 ✺
11.04.25	Żabbar St. Patrick - Gżira United	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Żabbar St. Patrick - Naxxar Lions	2:0 ✺
29.03.25	Żabbar St. Patrick - Mosta	1:2 ✺
13.03.25	Żabbar St. Patrick - Gżira United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 TLWLW
- Melita FC
Maltese Premier League
21.04.25	Naxxar Lions - Melita	2:0 ✺
13.04.25	Balzan - Melita	3:1 ✺
06.04.25	Paola Hibernians - Melita	3:0 ✺
30.03.25	Melita - Marsaxlokk	0:5 ✺
13.03.25	Mosta - Melita	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
08.03.25	Melita - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1
14.12.24	Melita - Żabbar St. Patrick	0:1
06.11.24	Żabbar St. Patrick - Melita	1:3
Maltese Challenge League
24.02.24	Melita - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1
28.10.23	Żabbar St. Patrick - Melita	4:0
17.09.17	Melita - Żabbar St. Patrick	2:3

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