Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Main - Round 11

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Gozo Stadium (Gozo)

Referee: Farrugia P. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Melita		Marsaxlokk

	1	X	2
	4.8	3.7	1.55
	5.2	3.7	1.57	Watch
	5	3.94	1.58	Watch
	5	3.6	1.57
	5.16	3.9	1.54
	5.2	3.7	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.06 ↑ (4.78)	3.76 ↓ (3.77)	1.56 ↓ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melita
17.9%

Draw
24.1%

Marsaxlokk
58%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

24.2%

56.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.4%

23.3%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Marsaxlokk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melita than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (+1%)

Melita - Marsaxlokk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mizzi G. (G) 9. Andre Carlos 6. Attard J. P. (C) 25. Barone G. 26. Bondin K. 11. Borg O. A. 77. Martinez S. 27. Sanchez C. 13. Van de Bovenkamp M. 14. Xuereb D. 19. Yepez J.	1. Calleja Cremona M. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 19. Arias U. 14. Corbalan J. C. 5. Dodo 22. Lopez L. 4. Micallef K. 6. Muscat N. 30. Scicluna R. (C) 23. Tank A. 10. Yuri Messias
Substitutes
17. Abela J. 8. Attard A. 18. Attard E. 5. Cachia M. 20. Cassar B. 22. Gyamfi C. 12. Lubik A. (G) 15. Micallef J. 7. Mohnani K. 21. Nick Cutajar 23. Testaferrata P. G.	20. Adamec M. 18. Barbara A. 11. Bonnici D. 16. Borg I. 15. Cassar S. 8. Ghio J. 96. Maniscalco M. 83. Marchetti F. (G) 24. Pena E. 28. Radjen N. 3. Torres Quinones D. D.
Coaches
Mizzi C.	Potenza V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Barone G. 🟨,
21', Lopez L. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Yuri Messias ⚽,
41', Van de Bovenkamp M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Xuereb D. ↓, Mohnani K. ↑,
58', 0 - 2, Yuri Messias (Pen),
65', Micallef K. 🟨,
69', Corbalan J. C. ↓, Adamec M. ↑,
69', Scicluna R. ↓, Pena E. ↑,
73', 0 - 3, Tank A. ⚽,
74', Borg O. A. ↓, Cachia M. ↑,
74', Yepez J. ↓, Nick Cutajar ↑,
76', 0 - 4, Muscat N. ⚽,
77', Barone G. 🟨,
78', Tank A. ↓, Bonnici D. ↑,
84', 0 - 5, Aguirre L. ⚽,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Premier League (Second stage ~ Play Out: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Second stage ~ Top 6: )).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Recently Marsaxlokk have a series of guest games.

In this match Marsaxlokk is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Melita won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1.7:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Melita won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melita FC
Maltese Premier League
13.03.25	Mosta - Melita	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Melita - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	Balzan - Melita	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Melita - Naxxar Lions	2:5 ✺
16.02.25	Melita - Hamrun Spartans	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.5 LTTLW
- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
13.03.25	Naxxar Lions - Marsaxlokk	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	Sliema Wanderers - Marsaxlokk	0:1 ✺
21.02.25	Gżira United - Marsaxlokk	0:1 ✺
14.02.25	Mosta - Marsaxlokk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
01.12.24	Melita - Marsaxlokk	1:3
24.08.24	Marsaxlokk - Melita	1:2
Maltese Challenge League
20.01.22	Marsaxlokk - Melita	0:2

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