Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday


	Aleksandar Kovacevic		Camilo Ugo Carabelli

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	3	1.38	Watch
	3.15	1.44
	3.04	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.4
	3.06	1.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↑ (2.62)	1.4 ↓ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aleksandar Kovacevic
31.7%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
68.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

63.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

60.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aleksandar Kovacevic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aleksandar Kovacevic than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aleksandar Kovacevic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Camilo Ugo Carabelli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	0%	64.7%

Aleksandar Kovacevic - Camilo Ugo Carabelli Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Kovacevic will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ugo Carabelli: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kovacevic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Ugo Carabelli (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kovacevic (votes: 1 - 50%). Ugo Carabelli (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kovacevic is ranked ATP: 94. Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 68.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Kovacevic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ugo Carabelli is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kovacevic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aleksandar Kovacevic
ATP Hamburg
20.05.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Aleksandar Kovacevic	1:2 ✺
19.05.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Arthur Gea	2:0 ✺
17.05.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
16.05.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Zhizhen Zhang	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWLWL
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Hamburg
20.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Francis Tiafoe	2:0 ✺
18.05.26	Kamil Majchrzak - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Miomir Kecmanovic	0:2 ✺
14.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
06.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Stockholm
15.10.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Ugo Carabelli C. retired

Aleksandar Kovacevic - Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide