Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
			Watch
	2.19	1.66	Watch
	2.29	1.68
	2.29	1.58	Watch
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.23	1.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.01)	1.66 ↓ (1.74)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
42.6%

Francis Tiafoe
57.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

49.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Francis Tiafoe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Camilo Ugo Carabelli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Francis Tiafoe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ugo Carabelli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Ugo Carabelli (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Camilo Ugo Carabelli will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ugo Carabelli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 68. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 21.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Tiafoe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tiafoe might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Hamburg
18.05.26	Kamil Majchrzak - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Miomir Kecmanovic	0:2 ✺
14.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
06.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWLL
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Hamburg
17.05.26	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
11.05.26	Francis Tiafoe - Andrea Pellegrino	0:2 ✺
09.05.26	Francis Tiafoe - Ignacio Buse	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Terence Atmane - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
ATP Houston
04.04.26	Tommy Paul - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLW??

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