Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 April 2025, Wednesday


	Alex De Minaur		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.67	2.15	Watch
	1.68	2.19	Watch
	1.68	2.33
	1.76	2.05	Watch
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.69	2.18	Watch
	1.68	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.89)	2.17 ↑ (1.89)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
56.2%

Lorenzo Musetti
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex De Minaur's performance.

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorenzo Musetti might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 11 - 35.5%). Musetti will win (votes: 20 - 64.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 47.7% – 81.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. De Minaur (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Musetti (votes: 8 - 72.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 21.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 7. Musetti is ranked ATP: 11.

Instantly two players are in a excellent shape.

De Minaur could have physical problems compared to their opponent - in recent days, they have played more matches than their opponents.

In this match, the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, De Minaur won 1 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5 (average 1.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Madrid
29.04.25	Alex De Minaur - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
18.04.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
17.04.25	Jacob Fearnley - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
15.04.25	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Madrid
29.04.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
26.04.25	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Jaume Munar	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
13.04.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
12.04.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WW?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Monte Carlo
12.04.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur	2:1
ATP London
18.06.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur	2:1
ATP Australian Open
18.01.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur	1:3

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