Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells (USA), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 3
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Finland	MTV Urheilu 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 4
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Yosuke Watanuki		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	3	1.39
	3.15	1.41
	2.92	1.4	Watch
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.93	1.41	Watch
	3	1.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↓ (2.99)	1.41 ↑ (1.38)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yosuke Watanuki
32.2%

Francis Tiafoe
67.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

68.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

69.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yosuke Watanuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yosuke Watanuki than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.8%	0%	79.2%

Yosuke Watanuki - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: Francis Tiafoe will win (19 of 24 users predict this - 79.17%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.92% – 95.42%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Watanuki is ranked ATP: 349. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 17.

Watanuki is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Tiafoe is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Watanuki could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Tiafoe is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Watanuki won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yosuke Watanuki
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Tomas Machac - Yosuke Watanuki	Machac T. retired ✺
05.03.25	Alexander Bublik - Yosuke Watanuki	1:2 ✺
04.03.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Rudy Quan	2:0 ✺
03.03.25	Mattia Bellucci - Yosuke Watanuki	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
22.02.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 ?WWWL
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Damir Dzumhur - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
26.02.25	Francis Tiafoe - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2 ✺
26.02.25	Francis Tiafoe - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
ATP Dallas
06.02.25	Francis Tiafoe - Yoshihito Nishioka	1:2 ✺
03.02.25	Francis Tiafoe - Taro Daniel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Miami
25.03.23	Yosuke Watanuki - Francis Tiafoe	1:2

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