Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday


	Alexander Bublik		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	1.50	2.63	Watch
	1.45	2.70
	1.43	2.80	Watch
	1.52	2.55	Watch
	1.48	2.70
	1.50	2.63	Watch
	1.49	2.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.52)	2.67 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
64.3%

Tomas Machac
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Alexander Bublik - Tomas Machac Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Machac will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bublik (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bublik is ranked ATP: 22., and Machac is ranked ATP: 75..

Both players have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Bublik could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Bublik holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Bublik has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:1 (averaging 2:0.5 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Alexander Bublik - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 62%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP Beijing
01.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
25.09.26	Rafael Jodar - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
04.09.26	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	2:3 ✺
02.09.26	Alexander Bublik - Adrian Mannarino	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Alexander Bublik - Jeffrey John Wolf	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWW
- Tomas Machac
ATP Shanghai
07.10.26	Zhizhen Zhang - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
28.09.26	Tomas Machac - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
27.09.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Toby Samuel - Tomas Machac	3:0 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
25.08.26	Mees Rottgering - Tomas Machac	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Halle
20.06.25	Alexander Bublik - Tomas Machac	2:0
ATP Dubai
26.02.24	Alexander Bublik - Tomas Machac	2:1

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