Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells (USA), hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 3
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Sport
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 4
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event


	Alexander Bublik		Yosuke Watanuki

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.67	2.18	Watch
	1.75	2.09
	1.71	2.24
	1.7	2.14	Watch
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.8	2.01	Watch
	1.75	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.58)	2.12 ↓ (2.4)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
55.1%

Yosuke Watanuki
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexander Bublik's form might have worsened.

Yosuke Watanuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Yosuke Watanuki's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alexander Bublik, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yosuke Watanuki than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Yosuke Watanuki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Alexander Bublik - Yosuke Watanuki Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Watanuki will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bublik is ranked ATP: 82. Watanuki is ranked ATP: 349.

Bublik is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Watanuki is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bublik could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP Dubai
25.02.25	Alexander Bublik - Felix Aliassime-Auger	1:2 ✺
ATP Doha
18.02.25	Andrey Rublev - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
ATP Marseille
12.02.25	Alexander Bublik - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
11.02.25	Alexander Bublik - Richard Gasquet	2:0 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
04.02.25	Alexander Bublik - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLLWL
- Yosuke Watanuki
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Rudy Quan	2:0 ✺
03.03.25	Mattia Bellucci - Yosuke Watanuki	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
22.02.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
ATP Doha
15.02.25	Christopher OConnell - Yosuke Watanuki	2:1 ✺
ATP Marseille
10.02.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWLLL

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