Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday


	Alexander Shevchenko		Mattia Bellucci

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.65	1.42
	2.7	1.41
	2.59	1.44	Watch
	2.7	1.46
	2.69	1.41	Watch
	2.7	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.27)	1.42 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Shevchenko
34.6%

Mattia Bellucci
65.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.6%

59.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

59.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Shevchenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexander Shevchenko's form might have worsened.

Mattia Bellucci has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mattia Bellucci's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Shevchenko than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alexander Shevchenko, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mattia Bellucci, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Alexander Shevchenko - Mattia Bellucci Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Bellucci will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shevchenko is ranked ATP: 111., and Bellucci is ranked ATP: 86..

Shevchenko has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bellucci shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Bellucci may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Bellucci holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Bellucci in today's match, at odds of 1.42.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Shevchenko has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Alexander Shevchenko - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.58%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Shevchenko
ATP Challenger
15.10.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Jay Dylan Hara Friend	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Alexander Shevchenko	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
05.10.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Yoshihito Nishioka	0:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
24.09.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group II
19.09.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Kasidit Samrej	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLLL
- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Challenger
15.10.26	Luka Pavlovic - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
13.10.26	Elias Ymer - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
07.10.26	Mattia Bellucci - Yi Zhou	1:2 ✺
06.10.26	Mattia Bellucci - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
05.10.26	Mattia Bellucci - Elias Ymer	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
17.08.25	Mattia Bellucci - Alexander Shevchenko	Shevchenko A. retired

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