Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Alexei Popyrin		Jakub Mensik

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	3	1.4	Watch
	3.08	1.43
	2.94	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	2.98	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↓ (3.52)	1.41 ↑ (1.3)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexei Popyrin
32.1%

Jakub Mensik
67.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27%

73%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

71.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexei Popyrin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alexei Popyrin's performance.

Jakub Mensik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jakub Mensik might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexei Popyrin than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Alexei Popyrin - Jakub Mensik Predictions

Users Predictions: Jakub Mensik will win (20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jakub Mensik will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Popyrin is ranked ATP: 60. Mensik is ranked ATP: 28.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mensik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mensik is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Popyrin won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Jakub Mensik - the odds 1.3 are the expected chance of winning is 73.03%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexei Popyrin
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Alexei Popyrin - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Alexei Popyrin - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Alexei Popyrin - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
ATP Houston
03.04.26	Alexei Popyrin - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Alex Michelsen - Alexei Popyrin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLLW
- Jakub Mensik
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Jakub Mensik - Alexander Zverev	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Karen Khachanov - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Martin Damm - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Jakub Mensik - Fabian Marozsan	Canceled ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Dubai
25.02.26	Jakub Mensik - Alexei Popyrin	2:0
ATP Vienna
21.10.24	Alexei Popyrin - Jakub Mensik	0:2
ATP Umag
22.07.24	Jakub Mensik - Alexei Popyrin	2:0

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