What is the expert prediction for Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, May 09, 2026)

Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Alexei Popyrin		Jakub Mensik

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	3	1.4	Watch
	3.08	1.43
	2.94	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.4
	2.98	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↓ (3.52)	1.41 ↑ (1.3)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexei Popyrin
32.1%

Jakub Mensik
67.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27%

73%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

71.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexei Popyrin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alexei Popyrin's performance.

Jakub Mensik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jakub Mensik might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexei Popyrin than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Popyrin will win (votes: 3 - 13%). Mensik will win (votes: 20 - 87%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mensik: 73.3% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jakub Mensik will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Popyrin is ranked ATP: 60. Mensik is ranked ATP: 28.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mensik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mensik is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Popyrin won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

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Last Results with these Odds

Jakub Mensik - the odds 1.3 are the expected chance of winning is 73.03%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexei Popyrin
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Alexei Popyrin - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Alexei Popyrin - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Alexei Popyrin - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
ATP Houston
03.04.26	Alexei Popyrin - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Alex Michelsen - Alexei Popyrin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLLW
- Jakub Mensik
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Jakub Mensik - Alexander Zverev	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Karen Khachanov - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Martin Damm - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Jakub Mensik - Fabian Marozsan	Canceled ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Dubai
25.02.26	Jakub Mensik - Alexei Popyrin	2:0
ATP Vienna
21.10.24	Alexei Popyrin - Jakub Mensik	0:2
ATP Umag
22.07.24	Jakub Mensik - Alexei Popyrin	2:0

Alexei Popyrin - Jakub Mensik: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide