Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Houston, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV2, Sport TV7
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Sweden	TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Alexei Popyrin		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
			Watch
	2.36	1.57	Watch
	2.42	1.64
	2.44	1.53	Watch
	2.5	1.53
	2.38	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (3.09)	1.58 ↑ (1.34)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexei Popyrin
39.5%

Francis Tiafoe
60.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

69.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

68.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexei Popyrin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alexei Popyrin's performance.

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francis Tiafoe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexei Popyrin than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alexei Popyrin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francis Tiafoe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.2%	0%	68.7%

Alexei Popyrin - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Popyrin will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tiafoe: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Popyrin (votes: 1 - 50%). Tiafoe (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Popyrin is ranked ATP: 45. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 18.

In recent matches, Popyrin has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tiafoe is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tiafoe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tiafoe might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Tiafoe will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Popyrin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexei Popyrin
ATP Houston
02.04.26	Alex Michelsen - Alexei Popyrin	1:2 ✺
31.03.26	Alexei Popyrin - Patrick Kypson	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
19.03.26	Marin Cilic - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Jenson Brooksby - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
25.02.26	Jakub Mensik - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLLL
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Houston
02.04.26	Rinky Hijikata - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
26.03.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Terence Atmane - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
23.03.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Francis Tiafoe - Arthur Cazaux	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Alexei Popyrin	1:2
ATP US Open
01.09.24	Francis Tiafoe - Alexei Popyrin	3:1

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