Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bastad, clay - Final

Date: 19 July 2026, Sunday


	Andrey Rublev		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	1.67	2.20	Watch
	1.70	2.18
	1.67	2.20	Watch
	1.79	2.21
	1.7	2.2	Watch
	1.72	2.18	Watch
	1.70	2.16	Watch
	1.60	2.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.74)	2.19 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Rublev
56.4%

Luciano Darderi
43.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	0%	53.3%

Andrey Rublev - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Rublev will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Darderi will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Darderi: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Rublev (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Darderi (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 23.5 Games - over (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rublev is ranked ATP: 16. Darderi is ranked ATP: 18.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Darderi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rublev won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Luciano Darderi - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 45.55%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Rublev
ATP Bastad
18.07.26	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	Andrey Rublev - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
16.07.26	Andrey Rublev - Andrea Pellegrino	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Andrey Rublev - Roman Safiullin	2:3 ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
24.06.26	Andrey Rublev - Thanasi Kokkinakis	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWLL
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Bastad
18.07.26	Daniel Vallejo - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
17.07.26	Nuno Borges - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
15.07.26	Daniel Altmaier - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Ethan Quinn - Luciano Darderi	3:0 ✺
Exhibition Hurlingham Men
27.06.26	Luciano Darderi - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Hamburg
22.05.25	Andrey Rublev - Luciano Darderi	2:1

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