Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Rod Laver Arena (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ben Shelton		Jannik Sinner

	1	2
	8	1.08	Watch
	7.5	1.08
	8	1.08	Watch
	7.53	1.11
	7.57	1.1	Watch
	8	1.06	Watch
	7.48	1.1	Watch
	9	1.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.89 ↑ (3.3)	1.08 ↓ (1.33)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ben Shelton
12.1%

Jannik Sinner
87.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

71.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

75.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ben Shelton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ben Shelton's form might have worsened.

Jannik Sinner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jannik Sinner's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ben Shelton than the current prediction. (+12.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ben Shelton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jannik Sinner than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jannik Sinner, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.8%	0%	54.2%

Ben Shelton - Jannik Sinner Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Shelton will win (votes: 11 - 45.8%). Sinner will win (votes: 13 - 54.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sinner: 34.3% – 74.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Shelton (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Sinner (votes: 5 - 41.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 32.5 Games - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1.5 Sets - Sinner (1.24) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -5.5 Games - Sinner (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Shelton (4.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Shelton (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Sinner (votes: 10 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Shelton is ranked ATP: 7. Sinner is ranked ATP: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shelton won 0.

Shelton is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sinner's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sinner may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sinner is the clear favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Shelton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 2:20. (average 0.2:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ben Shelton
ATP Australian Open
26.01.26	Ben Shelton - Casper Ruud	3:1 ✺
23.01.26	Ben Shelton - Valentin Vacherot	3:0 ✺
21.01.26	Ben Shelton - Dane Sweeny	3:0 ✺
19.01.26	Ben Shelton - Ugo Humbert	3:0 ✺
ATP Auckland
15.01.26	Ben Shelton - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWL
- Jannik Sinner
ATP Australian Open
26.01.26	Luciano Darderi - Jannik Sinner	0:3 ✺
23.01.26	Eliot Spizzirri - Jannik Sinner	1:3 ✺
22.01.26	James Duckworth - Jannik Sinner	0:3 ✺
20.01.26	Hugo Gaston - Jannik Sinner	Gaston H. retired ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
10.01.26	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WWW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP World Tour Finals
14.11.25	Jannik Sinner - Ben Shelton	2:0
ATP Paris
31.10.25	Ben Shelton - Jannik Sinner	0:2
ATP Wimbledon
09.07.25	Jannik Sinner - Ben Shelton	3:0
ATP Australian Open
24.01.25	Jannik Sinner - Ben Shelton	3:0
ATP Shanghai
09.10.24	Jannik Sinner - Ben Shelton	2:0
ATP Wimbledon
07.07.24	Jannik Sinner - Ben Shelton	3:0
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.24	Ben Shelton - Jannik Sinner	0:2

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