Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Wimbledon, grass - 1/64-finals

Date: 29 June 2026, Monday

Location: All England Club (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	2.10	1.73	Watch
	2.10	1.72
	2.12	1.72
	2.18	1.75
	2.12	1.69	Watch
	2.17	1.72
	2.12	1.74	Watch
	2.15	1.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.64)	1.72 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 39.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
44.7%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
55.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Camilo Ugo Carabelli's form might have worsened.

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Merida Aguilar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Camilo Ugo Carabelli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	0%	45.5%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ugo Carabelli: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ugo Carabelli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 57. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 85.

Ugo Carabelli is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Merida Aguilar has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ugo Carabelli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 55.8%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 44.2%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
25.06.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Mattia Bellucci	1:2 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
22.06.26	Jack Pinnington Jones - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Canceled ✺
ATP Roland Garros
27.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Andrey Rublev	1:3 ✺
25.05.26	Emilio Nava - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	0:3 ✺
ATP Hamburg
21.05.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 L?LWL
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP London
13.06.26	Martin Damm - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.06.26	Henrique Rocha - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
06.06.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Andrea Pellegrino	2:1 ✺
05.06.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
03.06.26	Liam Broady - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LLWWW

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Daniel Merida Aguilar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide