Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Ilia Simakin

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.80	1.42
	2.9	1.42	Watch
	2.8	1.42	Watch
	2.9	1.41
	2.92	1.43	Watch
	2.95	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↓ (3.26)	1.42 ↑ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
32.9%

Ilia Simakin
67.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

71%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

69.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Ilia Simakin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Ilia Simakin Predictions

Users Predictions: Ilia Simakin will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 77., and Simakin is ranked ATP: 154..

Ugo Carabelli is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Simakin is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Simakin may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Simakin is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Simakin in today's match, at odds of 1.44.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Ilia Simakin - the odds 1.33 are the expected chance of winning is 70.98%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Tokyo
27.09.26	Rinky Hijikata - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
ATP Chengdu
24.09.26	Federico Cina - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
24.09.26	Nuno Borges - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Canceled ✺
ATP US Open
01.09.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Jan-Lennard Struff	0:3 ✺
ATP Challenger
20.08.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Moez Echargui	Ugo Carabelli C. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LL?L?
- Ilia Simakin
ATP Shanghai
06.10.26	Rigele Te - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
05.10.26	Luka Pavlovic - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.09.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
18.09.26	Ilia Simakin - Hunter Heck	2:1 ✺
17.09.26	Cruz Hewitt - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWWW

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Ilia Simakin: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide