Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday


	Luka Pavlovic		Ilia Simakin

	1	2
			Watch
	2.75	1.42
	2.80	1.42	Watch
	2.68	1.43	Watch
	2.85	1.43
	2.73	1.40	Watch
	2.70	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↓ (2.79)	1.42 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luka Pavlovic
34.1%

Ilia Simakin
65.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

66.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

67.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luka Pavlovic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Ilia Simakin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luka Pavlovic than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Luka Pavlovic - Ilia Simakin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pavlovic is ranked ATP: 205., and Simakin is ranked ATP: 152..

Pavlovic has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Simakin is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Simakin could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Simakin holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Simakin in today's match, at odds of 1.41.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Ilia Simakin - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 66.59%, but this team recently wins 85% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luka Pavlovic
ATP Challenger
30.09.26	Lloyd Harris - Luka Pavlovic	2:0 ✺
29.09.26	Akira Santillan - Luka Pavlovic	0:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
22.09.26	Alexandre Muller - Luka Pavlovic	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.09.26	Hunter Heck - Luka Pavlovic	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Ha Minh Duc Vu - Luka Pavlovic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLLW
- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
19.09.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
18.09.26	Ilia Simakin - Hunter Heck	2:1 ✺
17.09.26	Cruz Hewitt - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
17.09.26	Blake Ellis - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
15.09.26	Timofei Derepasko - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWWW

Luka Pavlovic - Ilia Simakin: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide