Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - Final

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Rod Laver Arena (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Australia	Stan Sport
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN 2, ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	Eurosport 1, HBO Max, Oneplay
Denmark	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Finland	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
France	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Germany	Eurosport 1
Hungary	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Italy	Eurosport 1
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Portugal	Eurosport 1
Romania	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	Eurosport 1, HBO Max, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Turkey	Eurosport 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Novak Djokovic

	1	2
	1.3	3.5	Watch
	1.32	3.5	Watch
	1.34	3.53
	1.37	3.2	Watch
	1.33	3.5
	1.34	3.3	Watch
	1.27	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↑ (1.28)	3.48 ↑ (3.35)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
72.4%

Novak Djokovic
27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Novak Djokovic have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.2%	0%	61.8%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Novak Djokovic Predictions

Users Predictions: 55 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 21 - 38.2%). Djokovic will win (votes: 34 - 61.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Djokovic: 49% – 74.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 14 - 42.4%). Djokovic (votes: 19 - 57.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Sets - Alcaraz Garfia (2.67) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 37.5 Games - over (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +5.5 Games - Djokovic (1.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -4.5 Games - Alcaraz Garfia (1.82) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 41 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 18 - 43.9%). Djokovic (votes: 23 - 56.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Djokovic is ranked ATP: 4.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 3.

Alcaraz Garfia has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Djokovic has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the team to beat.

We predict that Alcaraz Garfia will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Australian Open
29.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Zverev	3:2 ✺
27.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	3:0 ✺
24.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul	3:0 ✺
22.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Corentin Moutet	3:0 ✺
20.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Yannick Hanfmann	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWWW
- Novak Djokovic
ATP Australian Open
30.01.26	Novak Djokovic - Jannik Sinner	3:2 ✺
27.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Novak Djokovic	Musetti L. retired ✺
26.01.26	Jakub Mensik - Novak Djokovic	Djokovic N. walkover ✺
24.01.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Novak Djokovic	0:3 ✺
21.01.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Novak Djokovic	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 W??WW

Latest Head to Head

ATP World Tour Finals
11.11.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Novak Djokovic	N/A
ATP US Open
05.09.25	Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3
ATP Australian Open
21.01.25	Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:1
ATP Olympic Games
04.08.24	Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:0
ATP Wimbledon
14.07.24	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Novak Djokovic	3:0
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
27.12.23	Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2
ATP World Tour Finals
18.11.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Novak Djokovic	0:2

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