Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: BASTAD (SWEDEN), CLAY - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 22 July 2023, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
France	beIN Sports
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Casper Ruud		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.48	2.6
	1.47	2.7
	1.45	2.63
	1.51	2.77
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.45	2.76	Watch
	1.49	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.38)	2.68 ↓ (3.21)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casper Ruud
64.4%

Lorenzo Musetti
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.9%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.5%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casper Ruud has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Casper Ruud's form might have worsened.

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lorenzo Musetti's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Casper Ruud, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lorenzo Musetti, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Casper Ruud - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: Casper Ruud will win (28 of 35 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.75% – 93.25%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Recent matches Ruud is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Musetti is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Ruud will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ruud won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casper Ruud
ATP Bastad
21.07.23	Casper Ruud - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
20.07.23	Casper Ruud - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
06.07.23	Liam Broady - Casper Ruud	3:2 ✺
03.07.23	Laurent Lokoli - Casper Ruud	1:3 ✺
Exhibition Hurlingham Men
01.07.23	Casper Ruud - Dominic Thiem	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WWLW?
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Bastad
21.07.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Filip Misolic	2:1 ✺
19.07.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
07.07.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Hubert Hurkacz	0:3 ✺
06.07.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Jaume Munar	3:0 ✺
03.07.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Paris
03.11.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Casper Ruud	2:1
ATP Roma
11.05.19	Lorenzo Musetti - Casper Ruud	0:2

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