Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham, grass - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 June 2026, Tuesday


	Dane Sweeny		Jacob Fearnley

	1	2
	3.00	1.36	Watch
	3.00	1.34	Watch
	3.15	1.34
	3.28	1.35
	3.1	1.32	Watch
	3.00	1.36	Watch
	3.05	1.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.76)	1.34 ↓ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dane Sweeny
30.3%

Jacob Fearnley
69.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

66.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

62.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dane Sweeny has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Jacob Fearnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dane Sweeny than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dane Sweeny, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jacob Fearnley, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Dane Sweeny - Jacob Fearnley Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Sweeny will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Fearnley will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sweeny is ranked ATP: 132. Fearnley is ranked ATP: 145.

In recent matches, Sweeny has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fearnley is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Fearnley could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Fearnley will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sweeny won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Jacob Fearnley - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 66.37%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dane Sweeny
ATP Challenger
13.06.26	Dane Sweeny - Bu Yunchaokete	0:2 ✺
13.06.26	Dane Sweeny - Toby Samuel	2:1 ✺
12.06.26	Dane Sweeny - Billy Harris	2:0 ✺
09.06.26	Dane Sweeny - Oliver Okonkwo	2:0 ✺
03.06.26	Yuta Shimizu - Dane Sweeny	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWWWL
- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Challenger
14.06.26	Jacob Fearnley - Bu Yunchaokete	0:2 ✺
13.06.26	Jacob Fearnley - Filippo Romano	2:1 ✺
13.06.26	Darwin Blanch - Jacob Fearnley	0:2 ✺
12.06.26	Keegan Smith - Jacob Fearnley	1:2 ✺
10.06.26	Luca Nardi - Jacob Fearnley	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Brisbane
02.01.26	Jacob Fearnley - Dane Sweeny	0:2

Dane Sweeny - Jacob Fearnley: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide