Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 4 August 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Liam Draxl

	1	2
	1.62	2.30	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.70	2.15	Watch
	1.68	2.36
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.63	2.30	Watch
	1.68	2.24	Watch
	1.66	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.4)	2.26 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
57.7%

Liam Draxl
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.2%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniel Merida Aguilar's form might have worsened.

Liam Draxl has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Liam Draxl's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liam Draxl than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Liam Draxl, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Liam Draxl Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Draxl will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Merida Aguilar: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 61. Draxl is ranked ATP: 211.

Now, both players are in good form.

Draxl may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 68.18%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Estoril
21.07.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Kyrian Jacquet	1:2 ✺
21.07.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Taro Daniel	Canceled ✺
ATP Umag
18.07.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Damir Dzumhur	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
16.07.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Titouan Droguet	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 L?WWW
- Liam Draxl
ATP Challenger
26.07.26	Liam Draxl - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
25.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
24.07.26	Liam Draxl - Clement Chidekh	2:0 ✺
23.07.26	August Holmgren - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
21.07.26	Millen Hurrion - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWW

Upcoming Matches