Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Corentin Moutet

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
			Watch
	2.65	1.49
	2.71	1.55
	2.6	1.5	Watch
	2.6	1.5
	2.67	1.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.09)	1.51 ↓ (1.72)

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
36.4%

Corentin Moutet
63.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

54.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniel Merida Aguilar's form might have worsened.

Corentin Moutet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Corentin Moutet's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corentin Moutet than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Corentin Moutet, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	0%	45.5%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Corentin Moutet Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Moutet will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Merida Aguilar: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 102. Moutet is ranked ATP: 30.

Merida Aguilar is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Moutet has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Moutet might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 45.14%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Corentin Moutet - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 54.86%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
21.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Billy Harris - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
12.04.26	Ethan Quinn - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWLW
- Corentin Moutet
ATP Barcelona
16.04.26	Corentin Moutet - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
13.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Corentin Moutet	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Corentin Moutet - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Corentin Moutet - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
03.04.26	Corentin Moutet - Marco Trungelliti	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLWL

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Corentin Moutet: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide