Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday


	Marco Trungelliti		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.21	1.67
	2.24	1.74
	2.17	1.69	Watch
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.21	1.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.23)	1.69 ↑ (1.64)

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco Trungelliti
43.2%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
56.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

57.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco Trungelliti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Trungelliti will win (votes: 15 - 83.3%). Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Trungelliti: 66.1% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Trungelliti (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 77. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 102.

In recent matches, Trungelliti has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Merida Aguilar is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Trungelliti may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Merida Aguilar will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Trungelliti won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Marco Trungelliti - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.38%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 57.62%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Madrid
21.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Borna Gojo	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
13.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Hamad Medjedovic	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Pedro Martinez Portero	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLLW
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Madrid
21.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Billy Harris - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
12.04.26	Ethan Quinn - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.04.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Joel Schwaerzler	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
21.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2
ATP Challenger
15.06.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marco Trungelliti	1:2
07.04.25	Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0
ATP Gijon
08.10.22	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marco Trungelliti	0:2

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