Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 11 August 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Learner Tien

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.65	1.48
	2.7	1.47	Watch
	2.81	1.53
	2.73	1.48
	2.65	1.49
	2.64	1.51	Watch
	2.75	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.63)	1.49 ↑ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 0.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
35.4%

Learner Tien
64.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

63.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

65.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Learner Tien has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Learner Tien Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tien (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Learner Tien will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 63. Tien is ranked ATP: 19.

Merida Aguilar is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tien has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tien might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Learner Tien - the odds 1.48 are the expected chance of winning is 63.93%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Montreal
09.08.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
07.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
05.08.26	Ugo Humbert - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
04.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Liam Draxl	2:1 ✺
ATP Estoril
21.07.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Kyrian Jacquet	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWWWL
- Learner Tien
ATP Montreal
09.08.26	Learner Tien - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
07.08.26	Learner Tien - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
05.08.26	Learner Tien - Gael Monfils	2:1 ✺
ATP Washington
28.07.26	Adrian Mannarino - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.26	Marton Fucsovics - Learner Tien	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWLL

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