Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Daniel Vallejo		Flavio Cobolli

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.45	1.53	Watch
	2.7	1.45
	3.17	1.41
	3.21	1.35	Watch
	2.9	1.4
	2.92	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.38)	1.43 ↓ (1.57)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Vallejo
33.2%

Flavio Cobolli
66.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

60.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Vallejo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniel Vallejo's form might have worsened.

Flavio Cobolli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Flavio Cobolli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Vallejo than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniel Vallejo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flavio Cobolli than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Flavio Cobolli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.7%	0%	94.3%

Daniel Vallejo - Flavio Cobolli Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Cobolli (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Flavio Cobolli will win (33 of 34 users predict this - 97.06%).
Confidence interval (95%): 91.38% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Flavio Cobolli will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Cobolli (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Vallejo is ranked ATP: 96. Cobolli is ranked ATP: 13.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Cobolli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Cobolli will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Cobolli will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Vallejo - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39.75%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Flavio Cobolli - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 60.25%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Vallejo
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Learner Tien - Daniel Vallejo	0:2 ✺
23.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Grigor Dimitrov	2:0 ✺
21.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Henrique Rocha	2:1 ✺
20.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Pedro Martinez Portero	2:0 ✺
ATP Houston
01.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWWL
- Flavio Cobolli
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
ATP Munich
19.04.26	Flavio Cobolli - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Alexander Zverev - Flavio Cobolli	0:2 ✺
17.04.26	Flavio Cobolli - Vit Kopriva	2:0 ✺
15.04.26	Flavio Cobolli - Zizou Bergs	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLWWW

Daniel Vallejo - Flavio Cobolli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide