Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Learner Tien		Daniel Vallejo

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
			Watch
	2.3	1.6
	2.4	1.67
	2.16	1.69	Watch
	2.2	1.67
	2.32	1.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.66)	1.65 ↓ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Learner Tien
41.9%

Daniel Vallejo
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Learner Tien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Learner Tien's form might have worsened.

Daniel Vallejo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Vallejo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (+17.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Learner Tien, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Vallejo than the current prediction. (-17.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Vallejo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.2%	0%	84.8%

Learner Tien - Daniel Vallejo Predictions

Users Predictions: Daniel Vallejo will win (28 of 33 users predict this - 84.85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.62% – 97.08%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tien is ranked ATP: 21. Vallejo is ranked ATP: 96.

Tien has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vallejo is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Vallejo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Vallejo will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Learner Tien - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 56.88%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Daniel Vallejo - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 43.12%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Learner Tien
ATP Houston
03.04.26	Learner Tien - Roman Andres Burruchaga	0:2 ✺
02.04.26	Learner Tien - Nishesh Basavareddy	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Kamil Majchrzak - Learner Tien	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.26	Learner Tien - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
10.03.26	Learner Tien - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLLW
- Daniel Vallejo
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Grigor Dimitrov	2:0 ✺
21.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Henrique Rocha	2:1 ✺
20.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Pedro Martinez Portero	2:0 ✺
ATP Houston
01.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
30.03.26	Daniel Vallejo - Zachary Svajda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWLW

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