Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Andrey Rublev		Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.7	2.15	Watch
	1.66	2.43
	1.61	2.31	Watch
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.59	2.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.71)	2.31 ↑ (2.16)

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Rublev
58.6%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Andrey Rublev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Rublev (votes: 3 - 60%). Davidovich Fokina (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Games - Rublev (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Andrey Rublev will win (19 of 23 users predict this - 82.61%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.12% – 98.1%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Rublev (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Davidovich Fokina (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rublev is ranked ATP: 14. Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 23.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rublev won 4.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Rublev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Rublev won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:4. (average 1.6:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 44.19%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Rublev
ATP Roma
09.05.26	Andrey Rublev - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Andrey Rublev - Vit Kopriva	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
19.04.26	Andrey Rublev - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Andrey Rublev - Hamad Medjedovic	2:1 ✺
17.04.26	Tomas Machac - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLLWW
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Roma
09.05.26	Christian Garin - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
27.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Quentin Halys	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.26	Learner Tien - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Toronto
03.08.25	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Davidovich Fokina A. retired
ATP Barcelona
17.04.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Andrey Rublev	2:0
ATP Beijing
30.09.24	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Madrid
28.04.24	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Roma
15.05.23	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Dubai
01.03.23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Andrey Rublev	1:2
ATP Roland Garros
01.10.20	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Andrey Rublev	1:3

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