Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Daniil Medvedev		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.56	2.40
	1.58	2.32
	1.62	2.48
	1.62	2.36	Watch
	1.58	2.4
	1.6	2.39	Watch
	1.58	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.73)	2.38 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 39.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
60%

Francis Tiafoe
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniil Medvedev's performance.

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francis Tiafoe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniil Medvedev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francis Tiafoe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 19 - 73.1%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 7 - 26.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Medvedev: 56.1% – 90.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 Sets - over (2.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniil Medvedev will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

#ad

Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 8. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 12.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 4.

Medvedev has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tiafoe is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Medvedev will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:3. (average 2.1:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP US Open
04.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Arthur Rinderknech	3:0 ✺
02.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Gorzny	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Daniil Medvedev - Hugo Gaston	3:0 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
25.08.26	Daniil Medvedev - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
18.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WWWLL
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP US Open
04.09.26	Valentin Vacherot - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
02.09.26	Rei Sakamoto - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Martin Damm - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
23.08.26	Arthur Fils - Francis Tiafoe	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Brisbane
06.01.26	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	2:0
ATP Laver Cup
21.09.24	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	1:2
ATP Indian Wells
18.03.23	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	2:0
ATP Miami
30.03.21	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	2:0
ATP US Open
07.09.20	Francis Tiafoe - Daniil Medvedev	0:3
ATP Australian Open
21.01.20	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	3:1
ATP Washington
01.08.19	Francis Tiafoe - Daniil Medvedev	0:2

Upcoming Matches