Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Santiago, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1, TV4 Tennis


	Alejandro Tabilo		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	2	1.79	Watch
	2.07	1.85
	1.93	1.87	Watch
	2	1.8	Watch
	1.99	1.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.73)	1.82 ↓ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Tabilo
47.7%

Sebastian Baez
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Tabilo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alejandro Tabilo's form might have worsened.

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sebastian Baez's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	0%	73.3%

Alejandro Tabilo - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Tabilo will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Baez will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baez: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tabilo (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Baez (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tabilo is ranked ATP: 42. Baez is ranked ATP: 52.

Tabilo is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Baez has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Baez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Tabilo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Tabilo - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 54.87%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Santiago
26.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:1 ✺
24.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
22.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Ignacio Buse	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWLWW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Santiago
26.02.26	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
17.02.26	Jaime Faria - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Carlos Taberner - Sebastian Baez	Canceled ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
14.02.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WL?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Santiago
03.03.24	Alejandro Tabilo - Sebastian Baez	1:2
ATP Cordoba
04.02.22	Sebastian Baez - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2
ATP Challenger
26.10.21	Alejandro Tabilo - Sebastian Baez	Canceled
ATP Buenos Aires
27.02.21	Sebastian Baez - Alejandro Tabilo	2:0

Alejandro Tabilo - Sebastian Baez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide