Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	03:15	ESPN
Belgium	07:15	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia And Herzegovina	07:15	HBO Max
Brazil	03:15	ESPN
Bulgaria	08:15	HBO Max
Canada	01:15	RDS App
Colombia	01:15	ESPN
Croatia	07:15	HBO Max
Czech Republic	07:15	HBO Max
Denmark	07:15	HBO Max
Finland	08:15	HBO Max
France	07:15	HBO Max
Hungary	07:15	HBO Max
Mexico	00:15	ESPN
Moldova	08:15	HBO Max
Montenegro	07:15	HBO Max
Morocco	07:15	2M National
Netherlands	07:15	HBO Max
New Zealand	19:15	Sky Sport NOW
North Macedonia	07:15	HBO Max
Norway	07:15	HBO Max
Peru	01:15	ESPN
Poland	07:15	HBO Max
Romania	08:15	HBO Max
Serbia	07:15	HBO Max
Slovenia	07:15	HBO Max
Spain	07:15	HBO Max
Sweden	07:15	HBO Max
United Kingdom	06:15	Discovery+
Usa	01:15	ESPN App, ESPN USA
Venezuela	02:15	ESPN


	Denis Shapovalov		Marin Cilic

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.7	2.1
	1.71	2.15	Watch
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.65	2.27	Watch
	1.66	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.62)	2.18 ↓ (2.29)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denis Shapovalov
56.4%

Marin Cilic
43.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.6%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Marin Cilic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.7%	0%	23.3%

Denis Shapovalov - Marin Cilic Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Shapovalov will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). Cilic will win (votes: 7 - 23.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shapovalov: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 39.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 Games - Shapovalov (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Denis Shapovalov will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 13 - 81.3%). Cilic (votes: 3 - 18.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 23. Cilic is ranked ATP: 70.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shapovalov won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Australian Open
19.01.26	Denis Shapovalov - Bu Yunchaokete	3:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
05.01.26	Denis Shapovalov - Raphael Collignon	0:2 ✺
Exhibition Men World Tennis League
18.12.25	Daniil Medvedev - Denis Shapovalov	0:0 ✺
ATP Paris
28.10.25	Denis Shapovalov - Joao Fonseca	1:2 ✺
ATP Basel
24.10.25	Joao Fonseca - Denis Shapovalov	Shapovalov D. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLTL?
- Marin Cilic
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Daniel Altmaier - Marin Cilic	0:3 ✺
ATP Hong Kong
07.01.26	Marin Cilic - Nuno Borges	0:2 ✺
05.01.26	Marin Cilic - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.11.25	Marin Cilic - Otto Virtanen	0:2 ✺
05.11.25	Marin Cilic - Stefano Napolitano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Stuttgart
11.06.21	Denis Shapovalov - Marin Cilic	0:2
ATP Cincinnati
22.08.20	Denis Shapovalov - Marin Cilic	2:0
ATP Marseille
20.02.20	Marin Cilic - Denis Shapovalov	1:2
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.19	Denis Shapovalov - Marin Cilic	2:0
ATP Basel
22.10.18	Denis Shapovalov - Marin Cilic	0:2

Denis Shapovalov - Marin Cilic