Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday


	Ekaterina Alexandrova		Darya Kasatkina

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.53	2.45
	1.58	2.4	Watch
	1.65	2.37
	1.67	2.18	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.61	2.33	Watch
	1.58	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.57)	2.38 ↑ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova
59.9%

Darya Kasatkina
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ekaterina Alexandrova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Darya Kasatkina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ekaterina Alexandrova than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Darya Kasatkina than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Ekaterina Alexandrova - Darya Kasatkina Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Alexandrova will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Kasatkina will win (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alexandrova: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 Games - Alexandrova (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ekaterina Alexandrova will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Alexandrova (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Kasatkina (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alexandrova is ranked WTA: 22. Kasatkina is ranked WTA: 14.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alexandrova won 3.

Alexandrova is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Kasatkina is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Kasatkina could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Alexandrova will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Alexandrova won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:7 (average 0.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ekaterina Alexandrova
WTA Madrid
25.04.25	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Olga Danilovic	2:0 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
20.04.25	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Jelena Ostapenko	0:2 ✺
19.04.25	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Jessica Pegula	2:0 ✺
17.04.25	Mirra Andreeva - Ekaterina Alexandrova	0:2 ✺
15.04.25	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Ludmilla Samsonova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WLWWW
- Darya Kasatkina
WTA Madrid
25.04.25	Alycia Parks - Darya Kasatkina	0:2 ✺
WTA Charleston
03.04.25	Darya Kasatkina - Sofia Kenin	0:2 ✺
02.04.25	Darya Kasatkina - Lauren Davis	2:0 ✺
WTA Miami
20.03.25	Darya Kasatkina - Hailey Baptiste	1:2 ✺
WTA Indian Wells
10.03.25	Darya Kasatkina - Ludmilla Samsonova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Cincinnati
13.08.24	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Darya Kasatkina	0:2
WTA Ostrava
06.10.22	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Darya Kasatkina	2:0
WTA Berlin
15.06.22	Darya Kasatkina - Ekaterina Alexandrova	2:1
WTA Prague
11.08.20	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Darya Kasatkina	Canceled
WTA St Petersburg
11.02.20	Darya Kasatkina - Ekaterina Alexandrova	1:2
WTA Beijing
03.10.19	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Darya Kasatkina	0:2

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