Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Porto, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 August 2025, Friday


	Elias Ymer		Hugo Grenier

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
	2	1.72	Watch
	2.03	1.7	Watch
	2.15	1.74
	2.06	1.75	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.08	1.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.86)	1.72 ↓ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elias Ymer
45.7%

Hugo Grenier
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

50.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elias Ymer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Hugo Grenier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elias Ymer than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Grenier than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	0%	81.2%

Elias Ymer - Hugo Grenier Predictions

Users Predictions: Hugo Grenier will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hugo Grenier will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ymer is ranked ATP: 232. Grenier is ranked ATP: 192.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Grenier may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Elias Ymer - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.77%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elias Ymer
ATP Challenger
30.07.25	Elias Ymer - Mikhail Kukushkin	2:1 ✺
28.07.25	Jaime Faria - Elias Ymer	1:2 ✺
23.07.25	Harold Mayot - Elias Ymer	2:0 ✺
22.07.25	Remy Bertola - Elias Ymer	1:2 ✺
ATP Bastad
16.07.25	Elias Ymer - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWLWL
- Hugo Grenier
ATP Challenger
30.07.25	Matias Soto - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
29.07.25	Pedro Araujo - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
23.07.25	George Loffhagen - Hugo Grenier	2:1 ✺
21.07.25	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
18.07.25	Hugo Grenier - Oliver Crawford	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWLWL

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