Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Oeiras 3, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday


	Elmer Moller		Nicolas Jarry

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.36	1.52	Watch
	2.4	1.62
	2.34	1.53	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.32	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.94)	1.55 ↑ (1.36)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elmer Moller
39.9%

Nicolas Jarry
60.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

68.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

64.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elmer Moller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elmer Moller's performance.

Nicolas Jarry has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nicolas Jarry might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elmer Moller than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Jarry than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Elmer Moller - Nicolas Jarry Predictions

Users Predictions: Nicolas Jarry will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nicolas Jarry will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moller is ranked ATP: 131. Jarry is ranked ATP: 156.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Jarry may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Jarry might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elmer Moller
ATP Bucharest
01.04.26	Elmer Moller - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Gabi Adrian Boitan - Elmer Moller	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.03.26	Elmer Moller - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	Canceled ✺
17.03.26	Elmer Moller - Kimmer Coppejans	0:2 ✺
03.03.26	Pedro Boscardin Dias - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LW?LL
- Nicolas Jarry
ATP Challenger
11.04.26	Nicolas Jarry - Jurij Rodionov	1:2 ✺
10.04.26	Nicolas Jarry - Nerman Fatic	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Nicolas Jarry - Dominic Stephan Stricker	2:0 ✺
07.04.26	Nicolas Jarry - Miguel Damas	Damas M. Retired ✺
ATP Miami
16.03.26	Mattia Bellucci - Nicolas Jarry	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWW?L

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