Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Emilio Nava		Valentin Vacherot

	1	2
	3.75	1.29	Watch
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.6	1.27
	3.7	1.33
	3.43	1.31	Watch
	3.3	1.33
	3.74	1.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (3.04)	1.31 ↓ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emilio Nava
27%

Valentin Vacherot
73%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

68.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

69%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emilio Nava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Valentin Vacherot has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emilio Nava than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.2%	0%	70.8%

Emilio Nava - Valentin Vacherot Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Nava will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Vacherot will win (votes: 17 - 77.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vacherot: 59.8% – 94.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nava (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nava is ranked ATP: 116. Vacherot is ranked ATP: 17.

Recent performances by Nava have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vacherot is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Nava may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vacherot is the team to beat.

We predict that Vacherot will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Valentin Vacherot - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 68.43%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emilio Nava
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Jenson Brooksby - Emilio Nava	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
13.04.26	Emilio Nava - Ben Shelton	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Emilio Nava - Alex Molcan	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Emilio Nava - David Goffin	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Jiri Lehecka - Emilio Nava	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLWL
- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Barcelona
13.04.26	Valentin Vacherot - Terence Atmane	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
11.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Valentin Vacherot - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
09.04.26	Valentin Vacherot - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1 ✺
08.04.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 ?LWWW

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